White Christmas Probabilities

Dreaming of a "White Christmas?"  Well, as you can imagine, the definition of a White Christmas depends on who you talk to.   For some, a solid snow cover on Christmas Day under bright blue New Mexico sunshine would qualify.   For others, it means seeing snowflakes on Christmas Day regardless of whether there's snow on the ground.  And for the snow hounds, it probably means seeing snowflakes and having snow on the ground.   

Regardless, the chances for a White Christmas in Albuquerque and other lower elevation locations across central and northern New Mexico are not good, as shown in the image below produced by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).  The image depicts the probability of having at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.  At the Albuquerque International Airport, for example, a Christmas Day snowfall (measurable) has occurred, on average, once or twice a decade during the 109-year period of record.  You can check out the national probabilities from the National Climatic Data Center.

Obviously, the higher in elevation and farther north you are in New Mexico, the better your chances for experiencing a White Christmas.  But just how much better?  The table below shows the various probabilities for a half dozen communities: Red River (RED), Grants (GNT), Albuquerque International Airport (ABQ), Clayton (CAO), Tucumcari (TCC) and Roswell (ROW).

It's important to note that the period of record varies greatly among these stations, which makes it difficult to make any significant conclusions.  However, generally speaking, winter storms that track across central or southern New Mexico, and tap low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, tend to produce the heaviest and most widespread snows, particularly over the eastern plains.  This may explain the fact that the probability of seeing snowflakes in Roswell is similar to Albuquerque. The chances of 1" or more of snow on the ground on Christmas Day in the Albuquerque Metro Area appears to range from 1 in about 15 in the Valley to 1 or 5 in the Foothills and 1 in 3 or 4 for the East Mountain Communities (Sandia Park, Cedar Crest). 

Snow pack across New Mexico is currently 10 to 50% of normal, and no significant snow is expected through Christmas, so probabilities of snow on the ground for Christmas 2005 are less than normal. What's the forecast for Christmas Day 2005?   

How did New Mexico fair for fresh snowfall around Christmas in the year 2004? Winter weather returned for a visit to portions of the Land of Enchantment Tuesday night and Wednesday, December 22nd, bringing heavy snowfall to the south central mountains where 7 to 10 inches of snow fell from Corona to Ruidoso. Snow also blanketed the Sangre De Cristo Mountains as well as the adjacent highlands, generally stretching from Taos to Santa Fe and Moriarty, with 3 to 6 inches reported. In addition, the eastern plains of New Mexico received 2 to 4 inches of snow. A brief break in the activity was noted Wednesday evening, however another storm system swept across the state Thursday morning. Generally one to three inches of new snow accumulated across the eastern plains with cold temperatures observed statewide. The afternoon high at the Albuquerque International Sunport was only 33 degrees, which tied 1943 for the third lowest max temperature on this date. Record lows were recorded early Christmas Eve with temperatures near -27 degrees at Eagle Nest (old record -26, 1990) and -1 at Hobbs (tied). The Albuquerque International Sunport recorded a morning low of 10 degrees above zero, which was the coldest reading since January 15, 1997. Sunny skies prevailed across New Mexico on Christmas Day, warming temperatures into the 40s and 50s. These warm temperatures allowed for substantial melting during the afternoon hours, however plenty of snow cover was present for Santa and the gang for locations along and east of the central mountain chain, as well as the west central mountains.

The 2004 Christmas Day snow cover, as well as the Christmas Day snow cover for the previous seven years, is depicted in the charts below. These charts show that for New Mexico, the higher the terrain, the greater the chance of at least one inch of snow on the ground. For most of the high elevations, the chances of snow on the ground (50 to 80%) exceed the chances of seeing it snow (15 to 20%). For locations at lower elevations, such as Albuquerque, Roswell, Clovis and Gallup, the probability of seeing snow (9-15%) exceeds the chances of having an inch of snow on the ground (2-12%).

Here are the "Snow on Christmas" events at the Albuquerque International Airport since official record-keeping began in 1893, through 2003: