National Weather Service Forecast Office

Winter Weather Products - Keeping You Informed

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Albuquerque issues winter weather products with a "Ready-Set-Go" concept. The "Ready" stage is anywhere from 24 to 72 hours before the impending weather event. During this stage, forecasters may highlight expected adverse winter weather conditions in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, which is issued daily and the primary product to be used for initial planning. For rare or extreme winter weather events, a Special Weather Statement will be issued as an outlook. Customers may also get an idea of weather for their area past the 36 to 48 hour timeframe by looking at the extended portion of the Zone Forecast Product. The "Set" stage is 12 to 24 hours before the weather event. If the forecaster feels that there is a good potential for dangerous winter weather conditions, she or he will issue a Winter Storm Watch highlighting the hazards and areas to be affected. Other forecast details can be found by looking at the Zone Forecast and Regional Weather Summary products. Warnings and Advisories are issued during the "Go" stage, which is 6 to 24 hours before the onset of significant winter weather conditions. After warnings and advisories have been issued people can look for Short Term Forecasts, which offer more detail than the Zone Forecast and usually cover the next 2 to 4 hours. To learn more about our winter season products and specific criteria used by NWS Albuquerque forecasters, please click on the links below..

Winter Storm Watch: A watch is issued to give advance notice when a significant winter storm may affect your area within 12 to 48 hours. This would include any combination of significant snow or sleet accumulation, significant ice accretion, strong winds, extreme cold, low wind chills, or low visibilities in snow or blowing snow. A winter storm watch is issued when there is at least a 50/50 chance that warning criteria will be met. Usually the winter storm watch will be upgraded to a warning when the nature and location of the weather event become more apparent. In any case, when a watch is issued for your area, it is time to prepare for severe winter weather.

Snow Advisory: A snow advisory is issued whenever accumulating snows are expected to cause localized disruption of travel and other significant inconveniences such as snow covered sidewalks and trails. Hypothermia and cold exposure may be a threat to anyone ill-prepared or too weak to handle the weather. Reasonable care will help one avoid most cold weather injuries or a fatality. A snow advisory highlights weather conditions that will cause a significant inconvenience, but if caution is exercised, should not be life-threatening.

Winter Weather Advisory: When a combination of snow, blowing snow, sleet, freezing rain or freezing drizzle is expected to cause localized disruption of travel and result in a significant inconvenience then a winter weather advisory will be issued. Whereas a snow advisory strictly pertains to snow, a winter weather advisory addresses multiple winter weather hazards. That is the only difference between the two products. During the 2004-05 winter season, in lieu of snow advisories, NWS Albuquerque will issue winter weather advisories to cover non life-threatening events.

Winter Storm Warning: When conditions that can quickly become life threatening and are more serious than an inconvenience are imminent or already occurring, a winter storm warning will be issued. Heavy snows, or a combination of snow, freezing rain or extreme wind chill, may bring widespread or lengthy road closures and hazardous travel conditions, plus threaten temporary loss of community services such as power and water. Deep snow and additional strong wind chill or frostbite may be a threat to even the well dressed individual or to even the strongest person exposed to the frigid weather for only a short period.

The tables below relate snow depth to minimum warning/advisory thresholds based on the information above and climatology. The bold numbers represent mid-point values (rounded up) of the forecasted snow accumulation range for a given storm event during its entire duration.

	Warning	Advisory
<7500 feet [Eastern Plains & Western Valleys]	4 inches	2 inches
>7500 feet [Mountains & Adjacent Highlands]	8 inches	4 inches

Examples for the Mountains & Adjacent Highlands (near and above 7500 feet):
Snow Accumulation	Mid-point Value	Product
1-3"	2	No Advisory
2-4"	3	No Advisory
2-5"	4	Advisory
3-5"	4	Advisory
3-6" locally up to 10"	7 (range is 3 to 10)	Advisory (high end)
4-8" locally up to 12"	8 (range is 4 to 12)	Warning (low end)
5-10" locally up to 15"	10	Warning
6-12" locally up to 18"	12	Warning (high end)
8-16" locally up to 2 ft.+	16	Warning (high end)

Examples for the Eastern Plains & Western Valleys (below 7500 feet):
Snow Accumulation	Mid-point Value	Product
1 inch or less	N/A	No Advisory
1 to 2 inches or 1-3"	2	Advisory
3-5"	4	Warning

Blizzard Warning The most dangerous of all winter storms is the blizzard. In New Mexico, the northeast highlands and northeast plains are the most blizzard-prone areas where the deadly combination of fierce winds and snow can reduce visibility to near zero and create wind chills well below zero. A blizzard warning is issued when winds of 35 miles an hour will occur in combination with considerable falling and/or blowing snow for at least 3 hours. Visibilities will frequently be reduced to less than 1/4 mile and temperatures are usually 20 degrees Fahrenheit or lower.

Ice Storm Warning A dangerous coating of ice, usually 1/4 inch or more. Ice storms are rare if not unheard of west of the Rio Grande Valley. However, across eastern New Mexico a mixture of freezing drizzle, freezing rain and light snow is not uncommon whenever arctic air masses invade the plains. In most cases, ice accumulations are less than 1/4 inch and a winter weather advisory is issued.

Note: Strong winds, usually blowing from the northwest or north, often develop in the wake of winter storms that cross New Mexico. This is especially true along the east slopes of the Central Mountain Chain and high plains of central and northeast New Mexico. These strong and gusty winds can persist hours after the precipitation has ended creating areas of reduced visibilities in blowing snow.

Now that we've covered all of the details, the important thing to understand about watches, warnings, and advisories, is that:

...

FREQUENCY OF SNOW EVENTS ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
	> 1 inch snow in the last:			> 2 inches snow in the last:			> 3 inches snow in the last:			> 4 inches snow in the last:
Location	10 years	20 years	30 years	10 years	20 years	30 years	10 years	20 years	30 years	10 years	20 years	30 years
Farmington	21	66	NA	5	24	NA	3	12	NA	2	10	NA
ABQ Valley	16	NA	NA	9	NA	NA	4	NA	NA	1	NA	NA
ABQ Sunport	19	62	96	10	31	55	4	10	17	1	5	8
ABQ Foothills	81	NA	NA	48	NA	NA	27	NA	NA	14	NA	NA
Socorro	14	31	42	6	18	27	3	14	22	2	11	16
Tucumcari	46	101	NA	26	60	NA	17	38	NA	10	24	NA
Clovis	27	63	100	15	40	63	10	25	38	6	14	17
Carlsbad	4	7	19	3	6	14	2	3	7	1	1	4

Additional snow climatology for New Mexico can be found here.