To test cost effectively in the free atmosphere requires specialized forecast services such as those provided at Aberdeen Test Center. Unlike the usual public general weather forecasts available from the National Weather Service and the Weather Channel, military meteorological forecasts deal with specific weather parameter values at specific locations for specific times. Moreover, these forecasts can be altered by customer request to include whatever weather phenomena a test requires for whatever time. The economic benefits of these specialized weather forecasts normally range between 10:1 and 100:1 but may be even higher.

Here are some examples taken from actual experience to show the cost-savings of using properly defined forecasts.

1. Test "A" - Summer and Fall of 1995. Test "A" needed to ascertain whether there were significant rain effects on a new electro-optical type of fuze previously tested only in arid environments.

Problem: test equipment and personnel were located 2,000 miles away, only a few prototype rounds existed, and the test budget was very limited.

Solution: forecast likelihood of significant rainfall rates at Aberdeen Proving Ground three days ahead to deploy equipment and personnel; set-up rainrate sensors, monitor WSR88D (Weather Surveillance Radar 1988, Doppler) weather radar, and talk test personnel through the test so the test rounds are fired under the correct rainrate conditions.

Result: very significant discovery made about rain effects on the new fuze for a minimum cost before further development funds were committed to the project.

2. Test "B" - Fall of 1994. Test "B" involved a foreign nation to test a weapons system over frozen ground without any snow cover. Problem: test equipment and personnel were located in a distant nation and required a week to deploy to the U.S. for the test; only enough money existed in the test budget for one such deployment.

Solution: forecast probability of both dry conditions and frozen ground one week in advance of the test date; install soil, air, and precipitation sensors to document test environment.

Result: test successfully done on one trip over thousands of miles away and under budget

3. Test "C" - Fall of 1996. A typical situation. A test director was under pressure from the test sponsor to complete the test by Friday. Test "C" was a ballistic test which had a wind restriction of 10 mph along the line-of-fire. The set of rounds had to be fired under the same general environmental condition. On Thursday, wind speeds greater then 10 mph by 0900 hours were forecast for Friday.

Problem: If the test were scheduled for Friday and got started before 0900 hours and the winds increased above the threshold, the test would have to be canceled after firing about 6 rounds. By this time $9,900 would have been spent, and the test would have to be re-shot because the group of rounds had been split. If the test were canceled and the winds did not materialize, the test sponsor would have been upset that the test had been canceled needlessly.

Solution: A special, high probability wind-speed forecast was made for Test "C" using special meteorological instrumentation.

Result: Test was canceled at 0800 hrs in consultation with the customer before any resources were committed; good relationship maintained with customer and $9900 of test money saved. Cost of forecast: less than $200.

4. Construction Project - Spring 1996. A very large amount of concrete (1200 cubic yards) had to be poured at one setting (a "monolithic" pour) for the foundation of a major ATC facility. So much concrete was needed that the contractor had to stop serving all other customers except ATC and devote his concrete plant and trucks exclusively to the project. It could only be done, therefore, on a Saturday. Since the heavy trucks had to use an unpaved road to approach the site, the road had to be dry.

Problem: If the project were scheduled and it rained before 0600 hrs, the contractor would charge ATC a $5,000 set-up fee for canceling his other customers. If the project were scheduled and it rained after significant pouring had been done, removal and replacement costs for the foundation would have been $500,000. If the project were canceled and it did not rain, the government would have been charged $4,000 for contract delays.

Solution: A two-day forecast and a 12-hour forecast were prepared for high no-rain probabilities. Cost savings to government: between $4,000 and $500,000. Cost of forecast: less than $400.

Since Aberdeen Test Center is truly a four-season, temperate-climate Army Test Center, customers require that certain tests be conducted in this environment for realism. Therefore, working around the weather and with the weather is very important for mission success.

Of course ATC forecast capabilities utilize data feeds from the National Meteorological Center and the National Lightning Detection Network. These products provide the basic starting point for our forecasts.

Lightning Strikes To The Aberdeen
Area During a Passing Storm

Satellite IR Display/ Satellite Visible Display

Unlike large-scale, general-purpose public forecasts, ATC forecast products utilize locally-acquired data at the surface and aloft for greater precision.

ATC meteorological personnel assure the quality of locally-acquired data, merge it with national data, and produce forecasts in various formats.

  NC Coastal Storm/Storm Over Aberdeen, MD.
WSR88D Weather Radar Plots

ATC forecast formats are based on customers' needs. 
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