000 FXUS64 KBMX 231004 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 404 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...FOG. THESE WILL BE THE KEY WORDS TODAY AROUND THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW FROM YESTERDAY HAVE MOVED UP THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...AND HAVE LEFT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND ALL DAY...WHICH WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY COOL TODAY AS THERE WON'T BE MUCH SUN TO HEAT THINGS UP. THE THINKING YESTERDAY WAS THAT WE COULD SEE SOME CLEARING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOW I AM MORE INCLINED TO LEAVE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A QUASI-WEDGE SET UP BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW...AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY BECAUSE OF THIS. NOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHTS FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECTATION IS STILL FOR IT TO PETER OUT BEFORE REACHING US. EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...AND THERE JUST IS NO FORCING TO SPEAK OF AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH. SO...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS VERY WEAK IMPULSE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS IMPULSE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TUESDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL AGAIN BE THE CULPRIT IN SWINGING AT LEAST ONE...MAYBE TWO MORE IMPULSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST ONE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT BECAUSE OF SOME CLOUDS THAT WILL BE WITH IT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE THAT WILL COUNT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS IS THE ONE THAT SHOULD GIVE US CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND A MUCH BETTER PUSH OF COLD CANADIAN AIR...LEAVING US WITH POSSIBLY THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. KEEP IN MIND THAT NWS BIRMINGHAM DOES NOT ISSUE FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS AFTER THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER COULD BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BY MONDAY. LETS PUT IT THIS WAY...WHETHER THE EURO OR THE GFS VERIFIES...WE COULD BE VERY BUSY WEATHER WISE BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 27 && .AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY 400 TO 600 AT TOI AND MGM. THIS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE DZ AS THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES IN THE MORNING. WIDESPREAD IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES BETWEEN 06Z SOUTH TO 10Z NORTH AND LASTING UNTIL 20Z. MAY EVEN SEE PERIODS BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z WHERE VIS DROPS BELOW 1 SM AT TOI AND MGM. SOME CLEARING TO AT LEAST MVFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 19 TO 21Z...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FEET THROUGH 06Z. 16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GADSDEN 54 43 63 43 61 / 0 0 0 20 10 ANNISTON 52 44 63 42 64 / 0 0 0 20 10 BIRMINGHAM 57 47 64 45 63 / 0 0 0 20 10 TUSCALOOSA 56 45 66 44 63 / 0 0 0 10 10 CALERA 56 46 64 45 63 / 0 0 0 10 10 AUBURN 56 47 64 44 63 / 0 0 0 10 10 MONTGOMERY 58 44 67 47 68 / 0 0 0 10 10 TROY 58 44 66 46 66 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 27/16