000 FXUS62 KCAE 100159 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 859 PM EST THU FEB 9 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... WV LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MID/UPPER FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW AND EXPECT SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS FOR THE AREA. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE AND WILL STAY NEAR CONSENSUS FOR LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH S/W CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVING EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS S/W WILL GRADUALLY PHASE WITH ONE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOW FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NC/VA CAPES AND DEEPEN WITH TIME. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC/GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A VERY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY THEN BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE CAROLINA/VA COAST. BASED ON LATEST 18Z GUIDANCE...MOS AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA...FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING PERIOD OF STRONGEST MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT. BEHIND THE SYSTEM COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE BREEZY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLDEST NIGHT APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS/LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES. INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO GOOD CHANCE EAST...LOWER CHANCE WEST AND PIEDMONT. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD THE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH DISORGANIZED SURFACE LOW/MID/UPPER LEVEL S/W MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE AS WELL AS THE TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEY WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AND BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND WILL STAY NEAR CONSENSUS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND EXPECT THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 20S. MODELS INDICATE A MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. POTENTIAL EXIST FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE FACT THAT SOME OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE/NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THICKNESS VALUES ARE CLOSE AS WELL AS WET BULB ZERO VALUES. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. AFTER THIS SYSTEM...GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY EXIST...BUT WILL INCLUDE A SMALL POP FOR THURSDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SUPPORT POSSIBLE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR MASS AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR OGB TERMINAL. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL AT ALL SITES BY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN MORE PROBABLE AT OGB. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR BUT THERE IS A THREAT OF IMPACTS TO AVIATION INCLUDING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY WITH IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...77 NEAR TERM...77 SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM...77 AVIATION...07