000 FXUS62 KCAE 041746 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 146 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/... SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AT 1 PM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILE IS WEAK SO NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ANTICIPATED...STORMS WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. && .SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL GO WITH 40-50 POP ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 50-55 POP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS FORECAST A TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN FOR THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MEX MOS FORECASTS MAX AND MIN TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...LOWS IN LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN LOWER 90S WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING PULSE THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WARM AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE. LIS -4/-6 AND CAPES 2000-3000 J/GK IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND NOT MUCH MOVEMENT EXPECTED WITH STORMS WHICH SHOULD BUILD UP AND RAIN THEMSELVES OUT IN THE SAME LOCATION. THIS IS TYPICAL OF STORMS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY 18Z-00Z. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT LOW VSBYS FROM FOG. INSTEAD NAM BUFKIT SHOWS A LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL JET ONCE AGAIN WITH WINDS 20-30 KT FROM ABOUT 2-8 HUNDRED FT. DECIDED TO GO IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS CIGS 6-8 HUNDRED FT 09Z-13Z SATURDAY MORNING. DID GO LOWER VSBYS 09Z-13Z OGB AND AGS WITH VSBYS 3-4 MILES IN SOME GROUND FOG. AFTER 13Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 16Z SATURDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...07