000 FXUS62 KCAE 231148 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 648 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RADAR AT 08Z SHOWING RAIN SHIELD MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DIMINISH AFTER DAYBREAK. COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE SO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...MAV MOS GUIDANCE WAY TOO WARM...MET GUIDANCE APPEARS BETTER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEDGE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEAST WIND AT THE SURFACE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WILL HOLD CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MODELS SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE WAVE ALONG COAST. SREF POPS MUCH LOWER ALTHOUGH NAM SUGGESTS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEDGE PROBABLY WILL NOT BREAK DOWN UNTIL SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY. SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED, EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLOUDINESS BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. MORE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THURSDAY. LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. 88D/OBS INDICATE SOME LIGHT PCPN OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY DRIZZLE. OBS ALSO INDICATING MOST TAF SITES REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING BY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$