000 FXUS64 KEWX 100346 AAA AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 946 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012 .UPDATE... REDUCED POP VALUES BY 10 PERCENT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. FROPA EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH OVER MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I35 WITH ISOLATED SPOTS WITH 1/2 INCH OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. UPDATED ZONE PRODUCT OUT SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ AVIATION... VFR SKIES WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS FROM STRATUS TO CIRRUS AND AREAS OF CIGS BKN-OVC035-080 WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH...AREAS OF -RA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING CAUSING CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BKN-OVC012-030. A PERIOD OF RA MAY LOWER CIGS TO IFR BKN006-010 AND VSBYS TO MVFR 3-5SM RA BR. THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY ENDING THE RA/TSRA/BR AND ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME VFR FEW035 WITH LAYERS TO SCT250. S TO SE WINDS 6 KTS OR LESS WILL BECOME N TO NW AND INCREASE TO 9 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ DISCUSSION... A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH A SERIES OF VIGOROUS TROUGHS DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ROLLING EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. THE FIRST TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL DROP SEWD ACROSS TX OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TX. ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NEWD FROM THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA. WILL SEE RAIN/SHOWERS IN WEST TEXAS INCREASE AND SPREAD SEWD INTO THE CWA AND INTERACTING WITH MOISTURE FEED OFF THE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WIDESPREAD RAINS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER AS THE TROUGH SWINGS BY. GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND PW'S GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...EXPECTING AVERAGE QPF VALUES AROUND 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH...WITH MORE ISOLATED TOTALS OF 1/2-1 INCH MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. CLEARING FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST...CLEAR AND COLDER FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE. A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY...BUT RATHER COOL SATURDAY AS A BACKDOOR-ISH COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE NRN-NERN COUNTIES WILL SEE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WILL NOT GET ABOVE THE 50S FOR HIGHS WITH CHILLY NELY WINDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BAJA LOW LIFTS NEWD AND JOINS WITH THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING INTO SRN CA/AZ. A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A "RAW & RAINY" WITH TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY GETTING MUCH OUT OF THE 40S IF AT ALL. UPPER TROUGH TO SWING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEREFORE CLEARING AND DRIER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO TX TUESDAY WITH WARMER DRY WEATHER...BUT ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM BAJA AREA WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND RAIN/CONVECTION CHANCES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 47 64 36 57 34 / 70 30 0 0 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 46 64 32 57 33 / 70 30 0 0 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 64 36 59 34 / 60 30 0 0 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 47 62 33 54 33 / 70 20 0 0 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 46 66 40 62 41 / 20 10 0 0 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 47 63 33 55 32 / 70 30 0 0 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 46 65 35 62 35 / 50 20 0 0 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 47 64 36 59 34 / 70 30 0 0 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 49 63 38 58 36 / 70 50 - 0 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 48 65 38 60 37 / 60 30 0 0 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 49 65 39 61 38 / 60 30 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31