000 AXUS74 KEWX 032135 DGTEWX TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177- 187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491- 493-507-172145- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 335 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008 ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... SYNOPSIS... RAINFALL DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER WAS LACKING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. DURING THE MONTH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDED COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ALSO LIMITED RAINFALL DURING THE MONTH. MOST LOCATIONS REPORTED GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING NEAR ONE INCH. OVER THE EXTREME EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS A FEW LOCATIONS DID REPORT RAINFALL OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES FOR THE MONTH. THE LACK OF RAINFALL DURING NOVEMBER ONLY INCREASED YEARLY RAINFALL DEFICITS. FOR THE YEAR MOST LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 10 AND 18 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THERE ARE STILL SECTIONS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2008. RAINFALL DEFICITS ACROSS MOST AREAS ARE 10 TO 15 INCHES... WITH SOME LOCATIONS DOWN AS MUCH AS 20 INCHES FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID DECEMBER 2ND SHOWED AN AREA OF (D4)...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CENTERED OVER HAYS...TRAVIS AND BASTROP COUNTIES. AROUND THE (D4) REGION THERE WAS A LARGE AREA OF (D3)...EXTREME DROUGHT SEVERITY COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SURROUNDING THE (D3)...EXTREME DROUGHT REGION WAS AN EXPANDING AREA OF (D2)...SEVERE DROUGHT THAT COVERED THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION ARE NOW CLASSIFIED AS (D1)...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... FIRE DANGER IS MODERATE TO HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. MOST GRASS AND FINE FUELS ARE BROWN. THE CONTINUED LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL INCREASE THE WILDFIRE THREAT. OVER HALF OF THE COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT COUNTY WIDE BURN BANS. AS OF DECEMBER 3RD BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 20 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE...ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET... CALDWELL...COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES... LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON AND WILSON COUNTIES. RESIDENTS IN COUNTIES NOT LISTED SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY JUDGE'S OFFICE BEFORE DECIDING TO BURN...IN ORDER TO ENSURE THAT THE COUNTY HAS NOT ENACTED A BURN BAN. THE DECEMBER 3RD KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THAT MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WAS IN THE 600 TO 800 RANGE. VAL VERDE COUNTY REPORTED A KBDI INDEX OF 400 TO 500 DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN LATE AUGUST. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH... NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE DECEMBER 3RD TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS WERE NOTED. THE REGION HAS REMAINED DRY FOR 48 DAYS. FORAGE AVAILABILITY IS BELOW AVERAGE GOING INTO THE WINTER DORMANT SEASON. THE PEANUT HARVEST WAS COMPLETED. THE PECAN...CABBAGE...CUCUMBER...AND SPINACH HARVEST CONTINUED. SPINACH...CABBAGE...AND OTHER FALL VEGETABLE CROPS WERE MAKING GOOD PROGRESS UNDER HEAVY IRRIGATION. POTATO PLANTING WILL BEGIN IN ABOUT 30 DAYS. PLANTING DRYLAND ROW CROPS MAY BE VERY LIMITED UNLESS THE REGION RECEIVES ABOVE-AVERAGE RAINFALL DURING THE WINTER MONTHS. CLIMATE SUMMARY... SINCE JANUARY 1, 2008 MUCH OF THE REGION HAS SEEN 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN. HIGHER AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND IN THE DEL RIO REGION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE YEAR SO FAR. PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2008 TO DECEMBER 2, 2008 AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL: 2008 RAINFALL NORMAL TO DATE DEPARTURE AUSTIN MABRY 15.67 31.37 -15.70 AUSTIN BERGSTROM 15.60 32.37 -16.77 SAN ANTONIO 13.51 31.10 -17.59 DEL RIO 16.80 18.10 -1.30 NOVEMBER RAINFALL WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS RECORDED BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN DURING NOVEMBER...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. DEL RIO IS CURRENTLY AT 93 PERCENT OF NORMAL SINCE JANUARY 1ST. DURING NOVEMBER DEL RIO RECORDED A TRACE OF RAIN AND THIS WAS A TIE FOR THE 2ND DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. SO FAR SAN ANTONIO HAS RECEIVED 43 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL YEARLY RAINFALL SINCE JANUARY 1ST. SAN ANTONIO REPORTED 0.01 OF AN INCH OF RAIN DURING NOVEMBER AND THIS WAS A TIE FOR THE 3RD DRIEST ON RECORD. FOR THE PERIOD FROM JANUARY THROUGH NOVEMBER SAN ANTONIO REPORTED 13.51 INCHES OF RAIN AND THIS WAS THE 4TH DRIEST JANUARY TO NOVEMBER PERIOD ON RECORD. RECORDS BEGAN BACK IN 1871. AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECORDED 50 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL YEARLY RAINFALL THROUGH NOVEMBER 30TH. AUSTIN MABRY REPORTED 0.72 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN NOVEMBER. FOR THE PERIOD OF JANUARY THROUGH NOVEMBER THE 15.67 INCHES OF RAINFALL MADE THIS PERIOD THE 4TH DRIEST ON RECORD. RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1856. AUSTIN BERGSTROM HAS RECEIVED 48 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL YEARLY RAINFALL TO DATE. DURING NOVEMBER AUSTIN BERGSTROM REPORTED 0.11 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS TIED FOR THE 4TH DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. FOR THE PERIOD OF JANUARY THROUGH NOVEMBER THE 15.60 INCHES OF RAINFALL MADE THIS PERIOD THE 6TH DRIEST ON RECORD. RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1943. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY DECEMBER. THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS IS CALLING FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL...ABOVE NORMAL OR NORMAL RAINFALL. THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY THROUGH MARCH IS CALLING FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL...ABOVE NORMAL OR NORMAL RAINFALL. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... THE MAIN IMPACTS OF DROUGHT HAVE BEEN TO AGRICULTURE...BUT THE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT AS RESERVOIRS...LAKES AND AQUIFERS CONTINUE FALLING. MOST RIVERS...MOST STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE BELOW NORMAL FLOW LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGE IS IN THE 10 TO 24 PERCENT (BELOW NORMAL) RANGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE RIO GRANDE BASIN IS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY DUE TO RESERVOIR RELEASES IN MEXICO. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF DECEMBER 3RD... ALL AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS ARE NOW SEVERAL FEET BELOW NORMAL POOL ELEVATIONS AND CONTINUE TO FALL. LAKE AMISTAD HAS RISEN DUE TO RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL UPSTREAM AND IN MEXICO DURING SEPTEMBER. BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND NORMAL POOLS. NORMAL POOL (FT) LATEST ELEVATIONS (FT) MEDINA LAKE 1064.2 1044.46 CANYON LAKE 909 898.51 LAKE TRAVIS 681 656.45 LAKE BUCHANAN 1020 1005.23 LAKE GEORGETOWN 791 771.14 LAKE AMISTAD 1117 1118.15 RESTRICTIONS... MANY LOCATIONS HAVE IMPLEMENTED WATER RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LACK OF RAINFALL AND DECREASING SUPPLIES. ALL LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY JANUARY 9TH OR SOONER AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN AREA CONDITIONS. && RELATED WEB SITES... FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES. (ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE) AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/EWX NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST: HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS): HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/ UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE): HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/ INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION: HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE NAY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2090 AIRPORT ROAD NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS 78130 830-606-3617 $$