000 AXUS74 KEWX 021736 DGTEWX TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177- 187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491- 493-507-161745- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1136 AM CST THU FEB 2 2012 ...ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS REMAIN IN MODERATE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT STATUS... SYNOPSIS... DROUGHT CONTINUES TO PLAGUE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... BUT RECENT RAINFALL CONTINUES TO ERODE THE SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS. AUSTIN CAMP MABRY...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL...AND SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL ALL RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IN JANUARY. ONCE AGAIN THIS RAINFALL WAS EXTREMELY BENEFICIAL. THE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT FELL ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-35 CAUSED RUNOFF INTO CREEKS AND STREAMS CAUSING RAPID RISES AND FLOODING IN SEVERAL AREAS. LAKES AND RESERVOIRS HAVE SHOWN SOME SMALL INCREASES...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE WESTERN SECTIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SAW SLIGHTLY LESS THAN AVERAGE RAINFALL IN JANUARY. FOR US TO SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS IN THE LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS SUCH AS FILLING LAKES AND RESERVOIRS...MORE FREQUENT AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENTS OVER SEVERAL MONTHS WILL BE NECESSARY. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE LA NINA PATTERN TO WEAKEN AND TRANSITION INTO AN ENSO NEUTRAL PATTERN BY MAY 2012. EVEN THOUGH THE REGION NORMALLY EXPECTS WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL IN A LA NINA PATTERN HISTORY SHOWS THAT ONE OUT OF EVERY FIVE...0R TWENTY PERCENT OF THE LA NINA EVENTS ACTUALLY SEE NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THIS IS WHAT THE REGION HAS EXPERIENCED IN DECEMBER 2010 AND JANUARY 2012. WITH AN ENSO NEUTRAL PATTERN EXPECTED BY LATE SPRING WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A MORE TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID JANUARY 31ST AND ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 2ND...SHOWED ALL OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN MODERATE (D1) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS. IF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS OBSERVED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THEN MORE IMPROVEMENTS COULD BE SEEN ON THE NEXT DROUGHT MONITOR MAP SCHEDULED TO BE AVAILABLE ON FEBRUARY 9TH. MODERATE (D1) AND SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT OVER SOUTHERN VAL VERDE...MAVERICK AND PORTIONS OF DIMMIT AND ZAVALA COUNTIES. ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF MODERATE (D1) AND SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) CONDITIONS WERE NOTED OVER NORTHEASTERN LLANO AND NORTHWESTERN BURNET COUNTIES. PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ATASCOSA... EASTERN BEXAR...NORTHERN WILSON...GUADALUPE...MOST OF COMAL... MOST OF HAYS...WESTERN CALDWELL...MOST OF TRAVIS...AND A PORTION OF WILLIAMSON COUNTIES ARE NOW REDUCED TO SEVERE DROUGHT (D2). EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST OF THE STATE IS CURRENTLY IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4). THERE ARE NOW LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WHERE DROUGHT IS NO LONGER A PROBLEM. AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE STATE THE DROUGHT SEVERITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... FIRE DANGER IS CURRENTLY LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL. AS OF FEBRUARY 2ND...BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 14 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE BEXAR...DEWITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS... FRIO...KARNES...KERR...KINNEY...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL... TRAVIS...UVALDE...VALVERDE AND ZAVALA COUNTIES. CURRENTLY ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BLANCO...BURNET... CALDWELL...COMAL...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES... GUDALUPE...HAYS...KENDALL...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO... WILLIAMSON AND WILSON COUNTIES HAVE LIFTED THEIR BURN BANS. RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY JUDGE'S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING. THE FEBRUARY 2ND KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED KBDI VALUES RANGED FROM ZERO TO 400 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE VALUES OF ZERO TO 400 WERE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE PLAINS. VALUES OF 500 TO 700 WERE NOTED ACROSS VAL VERDE...KINNEY AND FRIO COUNTIES. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M AGRICULTURAL INDICATED EASTERN COUNTIES RECEIVED FROM 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN...WHILE THE WESTERN PART OF THE DISTRICT REPORTED 0.50 OF AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES. WHERE THE RAINS WERE HEAVY...SOIL- MOISTURE LEVELS WERE GREATLY INCREASED AND STOCK PONDS WERE FILLED. OATS AND WINTER WEEDS GREENED BACK UP. SEVERAL VARIETIES OF TREES BROKE BUDS. CLIMATE SUMMARY... JANUARY WAS THE SECOND WETTER THAN AVERAGE MONTH IN A ROW. THIS WAS GREAT NEWS IN A WINTER WITH A LA NINA EVENT IN PLACE. HISTORY DOES SHOW THAT 1 IN 5 OR 20 PERCENT OF THE LA NINA WINTERS DO ACTUALLY PRODUCE NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS AND THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2012 TO MIDNIGHT FEBRUARY 1, 2012 AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL: 2012 NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL TO DATE FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL AUSTIN MABRY 4.70 2.29 +2.41 205% AUSTIN BERGSTROM 7.32 2.30 +5.02 318% SAN ANTONIO 4.00 1.83 +2.17 219% DEL RIO 0.50 0.75 -0.25 67% THROUGH MIDNIGHT JANUARY 31ST...DEL RIO RECEIVED 0.50 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THIS WAS 0.22 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.72 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JANUARY WAS 54.1 DEGREES. THIS WAS 1.9 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 52.2 DEGREES. THROUGH MIDNIGHT JANUARY 31ST...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECEIVED 3.99 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS WAS 2.23 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 1.76 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR JANUARY WAS 56.2 DEGREES. THIS WAS 4.4 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 51.8 DEGREES. THROUGH MIDNIGHT JANUARY 31ST...AUSTIN MABRY RECEIVED 4.70 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS WAS 2.48 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 2.22 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JANUARY AT AUSTIN MABRY WAS 55.1 DEGREES. THIS WAS 3.6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 51.5 DEGREES. THROUGH MIDNIGHT JANUARY 31ST...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECEIVED 7.30 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS WAS 5.07 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 2.23 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JANUARY AT THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 52.2 DEGREES. THIS WAS 3.0 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 49.2 DEGREES. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...A WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE THE WARMER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 1ST AND VALID FEBRUARY 9TH THROUGH FEBRUARY 15TH 2012 IS TRENDING TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2012 THROUGH MAY 2012... CREATED ON JANUARY 19TH IS TRENDING TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED ON FEBRUARY 16TH. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... DUE TO THE LACK OF SOIL MOISTURE AND RAINFALL NOT FALLING IN THE UPSTREAM WATERSHEDS MANY LAKES AND RESERVOIRS HAVE SEEN LITTLE OR NO INCREASE DESPITE THE ABOVE NORMAL JANUARY RAINFALL. MOST OF THE RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO SEE VERY LOW FLOWS AND THE WATER IS NOT RUNNING OFF TO HELP REPLENISH THE LEVELS IN THE LAKES AND RESERVOIRS. THE MAIN DROUGHT CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY LONG TERM HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. MOST STOCK TANKS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION HAVE FILLED OR HAVE COME CLOSE TO FILLING. WESTERN AREAS HAVE SEEN LESS RAINFALL SO STOCK TANKS REMAIN LOW OR DRY. IF THE WETTER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WERE TO CONTINUE... THEN THE LONG TERM HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN. THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGE IS IN THE 25 TO 75 PERCENT (NORMAL) RANGE TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT (MUCH BELOW) FOR BASINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF FEBRUARY 2ND... AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL ELEVATIONS. MOST LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL OR REMAIN STEADY EVEN WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN SMALL INCREASES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND NORMAL POOLS. NORMAL POOL LATEST ELEVATION DIFFERENCE (FT) (FT) (FT) MEDINA LAKE 1064.2 1011.64 -52.6 CANYON LAKE 909 899.15 -9.9 LAKE TRAVIS 681 626.92 -54.1 LAKE BUCHANAN 1020 989.94 -30.1 LAKE GEORGETOWN 791 774.51 -16.5 LAKE AMISTAD 1117 1103.44 -13.6 RESTRICTIONS... THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 1 WATER RESTRICTIONS. THE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS AND THE MORE FREQUENT RAIN EVENTS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP THE EDWARDS AQUIFER LEVEL FROM FALLING BELOW 650 FEET. THE EDWARDS AQUIFER IS CURRENTLY READING 657.9 FEET AS OF FEBRUARY 2ND. THIS IS 12.0 FEET BELOW THE HISTORICAL MONTHLY AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY WHICH IS 669.9 FEET. THE AQUIFER LEVEL IS 13.2 FEET BELOW THE LEVEL OBSERVED ON THIS DATE IN FEBRUARY 2011. ONCE NEW RESTRICTIONS ARE IN PLACE THEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR 30 DAYS AFTER RISING ABOVE THE TRIGGER LEVEL. AFTER 30 DAYS...IF THE AQUIFER LEVEL REMAINS ABOVE THE TRIGGER LEVEL THEN RESTRICTIONS WILL BE UPDATED. MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED BACK ON THE STAGES OF WATER RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LESS USE AND MORE FREQUENT RAINFALL. THE STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THE BARTON SPRINGS REMAIN IN CRITICAL STAGE 3 WITH A TEN DAY AVERAGE FLOW OF 30+ CUBIC FEET PER MINUTE. THE FLOW RATES REMAIN VERY LOW DESPITE ABOVE-AVERAGE RAINFALL IN DECEMBER 2011 AND JANUARY 2012. THE RAINS HAVE PROVIDED SOME RECHARGE...BUT THE BENEFITS WILL BE TEMPORARY UNLESS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS OBSERVED OVER THE NEXT 6 MONTHS. AUSTIN REMAINS IN STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS...SAN MARCOS IS IN STAGE 1 WATER RESTRICTIONS AND THE CITY OF KERRVILLE IS NOW IN STAGE 3 WATER RESTRICTIONS. LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND FEBRUARY 16, 2012 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. && RELATED WEB SITES... FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES. (ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE) AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/ OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST: HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS): HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/ UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE): HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/ INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION: HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2090 AIRPORT ROAD NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS 78130 830-606-3617 $$