000 FXUS64 KFWD 092355 AAA AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 555 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012 .AVIATION... /0Z TAFS/ VFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER DISTURBANCE. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA EXTENDING DOWN INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING IN CEILINGS AS PRECIPITATION FALLS. FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP SLIGHTLY AND KEPT CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH IF HEAVIER PRECIP ACTUALLY FALLS THEN CIGS MAY DROP INTO IFR DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOWER AT WACO BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND SKIES SCATTERING OUT A BIT MORE. WILL INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20KTS. DUNN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO MOST OF NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING TONIGHT. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND DEWPOINTS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 02-04Z /8 PM-10 PM CST/...AND THEN CONTINUE SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY POOR...HOWEVER...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MOST OF THE REGION RECEIVING LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS HAPPILY WELCOMED AT THIS POINT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. A HARD FREEZE WILL OCCUR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...AND RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE TO PROTECT OUTSIDE VEGETATION AND PETS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM A LITTLE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH FINALLY SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...INDUCING LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SAME TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AGAIN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL HELP THE ONGOING DROUGHT SITUATION. ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL RAIN MAKING SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODELS ON THE DETAILS OF THIS LAST SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK...AND WILL OPT TO CARRY LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNTIL A BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED. 82/JLD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 46 54 29 45 28 / 70 30 5 0 0 WACO, TX 46 58 30 49 28 / 70 30 5 0 0 PARIS, TX 43 50 25 43 24 / 70 60 10 0 0 DENTON, TX 44 52 25 42 22 / 70 30 5 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 45 51 27 43 24 / 70 40 5 0 0 DALLAS, TX 46 53 29 45 28 / 70 40 5 0 0 TERRELL, TX 46 53 28 46 27 / 70 50 10 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 47 55 31 48 28 / 70 50 10 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 47 60 31 51 29 / 60 30 10 0 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 44 54 25 45 24 / 70 20 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$