000
FXUS64 KFWD 080926
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO THE BIG BEND
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
MEANWHILE...HURRICANE IDA IS PASSING THROUGH THE YUCATAN STRAIT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. ANOTHER
BAROCLINIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO INTENSIFYING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF...AND WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH AND/OR ABSORB IDA
MONDAY NIGHT AS IDA NEARS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THE EFFECT OF
THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE GULF HAS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO LIMIT QUALITY GULF MOISTURE RETURN INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS VERY IMPRESSIVE...LACK OF
MOISTURE IN THE CRITICAL LAYER FROM 600-850MB WILL LIMIT THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE APPEARS SUFFICIENT. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB WILL BE PLENTIFUL AS
SOUTHERLY JET MAX INTENSIFIES OVER THE REGION TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 20000FT
OCCURRING...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR
NON-MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND EXPECT SOME
GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BACK FROM THE EAST MONDAY TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY AS SPRAWLING SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE GULF INFLUENCES
THE CONTINENTAL PRESSURE PATTERN. THIS WILL BRING SOME COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH VERY NICE
WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH LATE WEEK.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS BY
FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK INTO
THE REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER UPPER TROUGH. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND FAVOR
THE ECMWF TIMING FOR FROPA AROUND SUNDAY.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  59  76  56  74 /  10  10  10  10   5 
WACO, TX              74  58  78  56  76 /  30  30  10  10   5 
PARIS, TX             74  56  74  54  71 /  10  10  20  10   5 
DENTON, TX            74  57  76  54  72 /  10  10  10  10   5 
MCKINNEY, TX          74  57  76  54  73 /  10  10  10  10   5 
DALLAS, TX            74  59  76  58  74 /  10  20  10  10   5 
TERRELL, TX           74  58  77  56  74 /  10  20  10  10   5 
CORSICANA, TX         74  59  76  56  74 /  20  30  10  10   5 
TEMPLE, TX            74  58  78  56  75 /  30  30  10  10   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$