000
FXUS64 KHGX 110402
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1102 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SITUATION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ABOUT THE SAME OR A TAD MORE AS OF 24 HOURS AGO. MVFR RESTRICTIONS
TO VISIBILITY PROBABLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z OVER MOST LOCATIONS
WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT A COUPLE OF THE MINOR AIRPORTS. THE
00Z NAM12 INDICATED THAT CHANCES OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE BETTER AND
INCLUDED THESE FOR MOST INLAND SITES IN THE MID MORNING PERIOD.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/ 

DISCUSSION...
ZFPHGX ON TRACK. NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.
37

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 809 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/ 

UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED.

AVIATION...
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A CHANCE FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG TOWARD
SUNRISE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A FEW AREAS
MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE CEILING RESTRICTIONS. THE NAM12 TIME SECTIONS
ALSO INDICATE CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS AROUND
AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS SOLUTION LOOKED LESS CERTAIN AND
FOR NOW WENT WITH A SCATTERED DECK EXCEPT AT KHOU. WILL CHANGE TO
A MORE PESSIMISTIC CEILING FORECAST IF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS SO
INDICATE. 

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008/ 

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80 THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUD COVER MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
SKIES WILL PROBABLY BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MOISTURE DEEPENS UP ENOUGH ON SUNDAY FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST. A WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED IN AN E-NE FLOW WILL APPROACH THE
TEXAS COAST LATE MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN FOR MON/MON NITE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL PUSH EAST WHILE A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS INTO
THE SW U.S. PW'S RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY AND LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE PASSING TROUGH SHOULD YIELD HIGH RAIN CHANCES. THE
SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY COUPLED WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL ALLOW A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PERSIST
THU/THU NIGHT...DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS A BIT TRICKY SINCE MID-WEEK RAIN
AND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE ONCE AGAIN
LEANED TOWARD A CANADIAN/ECMWF BLEND. BOTH MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE
WITH RAIN CHANCES MID-WEEK AND SHOW SOME HEFTY TOTALS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  87  69  88  69 /   0   0   0  10  10 
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  87  69  87  69 /   0   0  10  10  10 
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  83  74  83  76 /  10  10  10  20  20 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION/MARINE...40