000
FXUS64 KHUN 230812
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
212 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS IN WEDGE TYPE
PATTERN...AND THIS HAS MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD
DECK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND U/A ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER
PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE S/W TROUGHS MOVING BRISKLY EWD THROUGH A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER 48.

EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST TODAY WITH VERY LITTLE DIURNAL TEMP
RANGE. WILL MENTION PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG THROUGH MID MORNING...THOUGH
EXPECT MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE. CLOUDS
SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT AND MOST LIKELY INTO
TUESDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF CLEARING PERIOD IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTN.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT THOUGH
FOG SHOULD NOT BE TOO EXTENSIVE GIVEN ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL SWING ACROSS THE
REGION TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. SOME TIMING/SENSIBLE WX DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS PERSIST WITH THE NAM BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP. THE
SREFS TREND TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARD THE LOWER RANGE POPS FOR THE MOMENT.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE BOTH SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND A RATHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WOULD ALSO
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THAT FOR NOW. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING
SEASONABLY COOL BUT DRY WITH A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE START TO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    55  46  60  44  61 /  10  10  10  20  10 
SHOALS        56  47  61  44  61 /  10  10  10  20  10 
VINEMONT      54  47  60  44  60 /  10  10  10  20  10 
FAYETTEVILLE  52  48  59  43  57 /  10  10  10  20  10 
ALBERTVILLE   52  46  59  43  60 /  10  10  10  20  10 
FORT PAYNE    54  44  60  43  59 /  10  10  10  20  10 

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

15/CBD