000 FXUS62 KJAX 041845 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 244 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... STEADILY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC TO 500MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTH AT 15 KNOTS AND MORE MOIST BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SCTD TSTMS WITH 30-50% POPS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH VERY SLOW SEA BREEZES MOVING INLD BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SETTLE DOWN BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30-50% RANGE ON SATURDAY THEN INCREASE INTO THE 50-60% RANGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALTHOUGH I HAVE CAPPED THEM AT 54% TO STAY WITHIN COLLABORATION THRESHOLDS WITH OTHER OFFICES. SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY WILL ENHANCE THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND COOL 500MB TEMPS WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ARND 90 AND LOWS NEAR 70. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUE AND WED WILL WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY STRONGER RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO 50-60% POPS ON TUE/WED DECREASING TO 30-50% ON THU/FRI. TEMPS AGAIN WILL CONTINUE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES. && .AVIATION...HAVE PUT IN VCTS AND TEMPO TSRA FOR TAFS SITES AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG INLAND MOVING SEABREEZES. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AROUND 00Z WITH VFR TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. && .MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. SEAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 69 93 71 / 40 20 40 40 SSI 86 73 88 74 / 30 10 30 20 JAX 89 70 91 72 / 40 10 40 20 SGJ 85 71 89 72 / 40 10 30 20 GNV 90 69 92 70 / 50 20 50 20 OCF 88 69 91 70 / 50 30 50 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ HESS/ZIBURA/KEEGAN