000
FXUS64 KLCH 042047
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
331 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...HOT AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
CELEBRATIONS. FORTUNATELY THE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED SUFFICIENTLY
TO BRING SOME...COOLING...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS LINGERING OVER NORTH LOUISIANA
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY RETREATED
NORTHEAST. DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ALOFT...50O MILLIBAR HIGH
REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND WILL MAINTAIN A HOT AND DRY FORECAST FOR
ONE MORE DAY.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS AND ZONES WITH OVERALL THINKING
REMAINING THE SAME. FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND EXPECTING
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAINS AND THESE PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE HOT BUT SHOULD BE
UNDER THAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
A MODIFYING SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
LOWER POPS AND HIGHER TEMPS OFFERED BY NAM MOS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST ECMWF. GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST ON MOISTURE AND PRECIP
RETURN FOR THE DAY...ALONG WITH THE LOWER TEMPERATURES.

BREAKDOWN OF TEXAS RIDGE OCCURS WITH WHAT SHOULD BE THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME 
VERY RESPECTABLE PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES INCOMING WITH FEATURE 
AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY OUR 50 PERCENT POPS. LONGER TERM MODELS 
SHOWING SERIES OF IMPULSES CONTINUING TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE 
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...CARVING OUT A POSITIVELY TILTED SOUTHEAST 
CONUS TO WEST GULF TROF FOR MID-WEEK ...EVOLVING INTO A SHEAR AXIS 
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE MOISTURE AND 
SUFFICIENT WEAKNESS ALOFT TO KEEP DECENT POPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WEST ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NOW OVER MID-TEXAS BREAKS
DOWN AS A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  79  95  78  90  76 /   0  10  20  50  30 
KBPT  78  95  78  91  76 /   0  10  20  50  30 
KAEX  77  97  76  89  73 /   0  20  20  50  30 
KLFT  77  94  77  90  75 /   0  10  20  50  30 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON 
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. 
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...
     TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

MARCOTTE