000 FXUS64 KLCH 080526 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1130 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009 .AVIATION... MVFR CONDITIONS SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A LONE IFR AREA UP AROUND AEX WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND 2K FEET AND VISIBILITIES NEAR 2 MILE IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AS SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP. ADDED PROBABILITY OF RAIN TO TAF'S IN THE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM TEXAS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE MOVING SWIFTLY OUT OF WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. && .UPDATE... ONLY UPDATE TO INLAND FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10...TO COINCIDE WITH INCREASES ACROSS THE INLAND LAKES AND BAYS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS (SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW). OTHERWISE...OTHER PARAMETERS ON TRACK. DML && .COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF STATES. THIS SETUP CONTINUES A LARGE EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE GULF...CONTINUING MINOR WATER PILEUP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 1-1.5 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS EVENING. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY...TIDES COULD FURTHER INCREASE. THIS COULD RESULT IN TIDE LEVELS RUNNING ABOUT ONE AND ONE HALF FEET ABOVE THE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...WITH ACTUAL TIDE LEVELS REACHING BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4 FEET DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SUNDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR VERMILION & CAMERON PARISHES IN SW LA...AND JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SE TX. CONTINUED COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES FOR TIDES REACHING 2.5 TO POSSIBLY 3.5 FEET SAT. DON'T EXPECT AS MUCH WATER PILEUP DUE TO THE WNW TO ESE ORIENTATION THE COASTLINE THERE IN RELATION TO THE WIND DIRECTION. DML && .MARINE... UPDATES TO THE WINDS AND SEAS THRU WED DUE TO THE LATEST UPDATED GUIDANCE...AND TRACK OF IDA...WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SE OF THE AREA AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. IDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONGER FURTHER NORTH...EVENING DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER N FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF IDA AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BUILDING HIGH TO THE NORTH. THUS...SCA NOW REQUIRED FOR THE INLAND LAKES AND BAYS...AS WELL AS EXTENDING THE SCA THRU LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. DML && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/ AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TRANSITIONING LATER TONIGHT TO TEMPO MVFR FOR LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AEX MAY SEE TEMPO IFR WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1 MILE OR SO IN THE MORNING. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTNS UP. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/ SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE LA AND SRN MS. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE TS IDA IS NOW BACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE CONTINUES TO RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES PROVIDING LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS AFTN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DISCUSSION... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AS IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH SUNDAY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH IDA BY MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CNTRL GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS TX SUNDAY...APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO LIFT THE IDA/WEST GULF LOW SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A BPT-AEX LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF IDA. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE EASTERLY FETCH OF WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GULF LOW WILL ALLOW FOR WATER TO PILE UP ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MORNING LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MARINE... MODERATE TO STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST...POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IDA OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 6 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE. HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF IDA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HYDROLOGY... MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACRS THE AREA. WATER LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE. WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SRN LA...NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS ON THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE NECHES...SABINE AND CALCASIEU RIVERS IS EXPECTED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 58 76 62 72 60 / 10 40 70 60 40 KBPT 58 77 64 74 61 / 10 40 50 50 20 KAEX 52 77 59 72 58 / 10 20 50 50 60 KLFT 57 76 62 71 62 / 10 40 70 70 60 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CAMERON...VERMILION. TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...VERMILION BAY. && $$