000
FXUS64 KMOB 092341 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
540 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012

.AVIATION...(00Z ISSUANCE) GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 
THE PERIOD. WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
MEX...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO 
FRIDAY NIGHT.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND FRIDAY]...A SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST.
A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL MOVE EAST SUCH THAT IT WILL
REACH THE SABINE RIVER. HOWEVER THE BIG FEATURE IS AN HUGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE AXIS IS NOW OVER THE ROCKIES BUT BY LATE SATURDAY
WOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE NEW YORK CITY REGION SOUTHWEST INTO ONSLOW
BAY. JETLET OR JET MAX DIGGING IN AHEAD OF A FRONT HEADED EAST OUT OF
THE SABINE RIVER INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER
ON FRIDAY. MODEL CALCULATIONS ARE IN SYNC MOVING THE FEATURE PAST THE
PIEDMONT INTO ONSLOW BAY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WESTLANT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE CONTINUING WITH THE MODEL OUTPUTS...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER FEATURE AND PASS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING...FORCING SOME STABLE
LIFTING FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH. THE MAV GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING ITS FREQUENT BEHAVIOR
IN THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN THE FAR NORTH REACHES
FOR SATURDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS. IT HAPPENS TO VERIFY OFTEN...SO WE'LL
TAKE IT. /77

&&

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...NO CHANGES. LARGE HIGH 
OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK 
REINFORCING A COOL DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CENTER OF HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY 
SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW OF DEEPER MOISTURE...BRINGING ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH 
MONDAY...AND BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC 
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO 
SATURDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE THROUGH SUNDAY 
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE 
REGION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE REGION BECOMING SCATTERED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT 
WILL PASS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. AFTERNOON DISPERSION IN THE LOW 60S 
FRIDAY AND LOW 70S SATURDAY. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  63  41  54 /  10  30  40  05 
PENSACOLA   44  64  44  57 /  05  20  50  05 
DESTIN      46  64  46  58 /  05  10  50  05 
EVERGREEN   37  63  38  51 /  05  20  40  05 
WAYNESBORO  36  57  36  49 /  10  30  40  05 
CAMDEN      36  60  37  49 /  05  20  50  05 
CRESTVIEW   35  67  38  56 /  05  10  50  05 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$