000
FXUS64 KMOB 042021
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
321 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SATURDAY]...UNFORTUNATELY...EVENING BARBECUES
MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CARRYING
OVER FROM THE AFTERNOON. NOT LOOKING FOR A COMPLETE WASHOUT
THOUGH...BUT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL BRING ABOUT DELAYS
IN THE INDEPENDENCE DAY COOKING PLANS. SOME OF THE EVENING STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM. HOWEVER...FORECASTERS ANTICIPATE COVERAGES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE
DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY. CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM DECAYED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH AS TO NOT IMPACT FIRE WORKS VIEWING IN MOST AREAS LATER IN THE
EVENING. THE GULF COAST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF. WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATERS 1.8 TO 2 INCHES) ALONG WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM INITIATING ON WEAK MESOSCALE/SEA/BAY BREEZE BOUNDARIES ON
SATURDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOWS NEAR 70
INLAND TO MID 70S COAST AND DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90. /10
 
.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL 
PERSIST FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE 
MEDIUM RANGE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ROUGHLY 30 TO 50
PERCENT...PRIMARILY FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND
NEAR THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ALSO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. 10/11

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE EVENING. MAY GET DOWN TO MVFR
CEILINGS BRIEFLY IN MORNING WITH TSTMS IN VCNTY SATURDAY NEAR THE
COASTAL SITES. /10

&&

.MARINE...DID NOT SEE ANYTHING IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO WHAT IS OFFERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SOUTHERLY DAYTIME WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT FROM
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING NEXT WEEK. SEAS 1 TO 2
FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. 05/10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  89  71  88 /  20  40  30  60 
PENSACOLA   75  90  73  86 /  20  40  30  60 
DESTIN      76  88  75  87 /  20  40  30  60 
EVERGREEN   69  89  69  88 /  20  40  30  60 
WAYNESBORO  69  90  68  89 /  20  30  40  50 
CAMDEN      69  89  69  88 /  20  40  40  60 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$