000 FGUS74 KMRX 141659 ESFMRX DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 100 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 ...ATTENTION! STARTING JUNE 10, 2008 THIS PRODUCT WILL ONLY BE ISSUED UNDER THE NEW AWIPS HEADER MEMDGTMRX OR WMO HEADER AXAA71 KMRX... ...DROUGHT HOLDS IN EAST TENNESSEE, EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA... SYNOPSIS... THIS STATEMENT IS...UNTIL JUNE 10, 2008...ALSO ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER MEMPNSMRX, AND WMO HEADER NOUS44 KMRX. ALL GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTIONS ARE APPROXIMATE. D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND IN SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. SUCH CONDITIONS ALSO EXIST IN CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA. D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT EXISTS GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM DEER LODGE TO KNOXVILLE (INCLUDING THE KNOXVILLE METRO AREA) TO DANDRIDGE TO KINGSPORT, IN EAST TENNESSEE. THIS INCLUDES THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS, AND MOST OF THE TRI-CITIES METRO AREA. IN VIRGINIA, THEY EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. IT ALSO INCLUDES THE CITY OF BRISTOL. D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) CONDITIONS EXIST IN EAST TENNESSEE NORTH OF A LINE FROM DEER LODGE TO KNOXVILLE (EXCLUDING THE KNOXVILLE METRO AREA) TO DANDRIDGE TO KINGSPORT, AND IN VIRGINIA IN LEE, SCOTT, WISE, RUSSELL, AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NORTON. A SMALL SLIVER OF SCOTT COUNTY, TENNESSEE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER IS IN A NEAR NORMAL STATE OF WETNESS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... NO WIDESPREAD SERIOUS LOCAL OR STATE WATER SUPPLY, FIRE, NAVIGATION, OR RECREATIONAL IMPACTS ARE KNOWN, ALTHOUGH SOME RECREATIONAL RIVERS ARE LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THE DATE. SOME SMALL SPRINGS AND WELLS ARE STILL LOWER THAN NORMAL AROUND THE REGION, WHICH AFFECT LOCAL OR INDIVIDUAL WATER SUPPLIES. FOR INFORMATION ON LOCAL WATER RESTRICTIONS, PLEASE CALL YOUR LOCAL WATER BOARD. NO WIDESPREAD FIRE RESTRICTIONS ARE KNOWN TO EXIST, HOWEVER CONTACT LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION OR PERMITS. CLIMATE SUMMARY... RAINFALL AT INDIVIDUAL POINTS IS NOT ALWAYS AN ACCURATE REFLECTION OF AN AREA'S PRECIPITATION. RAINFALL OVER LARGE AREAS IS A MORE REALISTIC REPRESENTATION A REGION'S RAIN SITUATION. BELOW ARE THE DATA FOR THE MAIN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OBSERVATION POINTS FOR THE PERIOD STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY, MAY 13, 2008: SITE RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM CHATTANOOGA 57.11 77.12 -20.01 74 KNOXVILLE 51.75 68.05 -16.30 76 OAK RIDGE 55.96 76.83 -20.87 73 TRI-CITIES 36.75 57.28 -20.53 64 NWS MORRISTOWN 45.58 63.48 -17.90 72 RAIN TOTAL OVER LARGE AREAS SUCH AS RESERVOIR DRAINAGE BASINS IS A MUCH BETTER INDICATOR OF AN AREA'S "RAIN HEALTH" THAN SIMPLE POINT TOTALS. BELOW ARE THE DATA FOR THE TVA BASINS IN THE UPPER TENNESSEE RIVER DRAINAGE FOR THE PERIOD STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY, MAY 14, 2008: BASIN RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM SOUTH HOLSTON 46.13 60.29 -14.16 77 WATAUGA 46.41 63.64 -17.23 73 BOONE 42.76 61.91 -19.15 69 CHEROKEE 44.15 60.62 -16.47 73 DOUGLAS 46.43 64.39 -17.96 72 FONTANA 60.27 82.22 -21.95 73 NORRIS 46.57 63.44 -16.87 73 MELTON HILL 51.87 68.74 -16.87 75 CHATUGE 51.26 82.23 -30.97 62 NOTTELY 57.88 76.30 -18.42 76 HIWASSEE 53.92 79.87 -25.95 68 FT. LOUDOUN/TELLICO 46.58 67.67 -21.09 69 WATTS BAR 53.12 71.51 -18.39 74 CHICKAMAUGA 45.60 74.68 -29.08 61 NICKAJACK 44.71 75.66 -30.95 59 GUNTERSVILLE 43.52 76.87 -33.35 57 TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION HAVE BEEN GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SO FAR IN MAY. DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS, A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND HAS TAKEN PLACE. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THROUGH ABOUT MAY 23, GENERAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REGION AS A WHOLE. INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS MAY VARY. THE LAST WEEK OF MAY IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL. THE PERIOD OF JUNE THROUGH AUGUST IS EXPECTED TO ABOUT NORMAL FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL. THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THIS OUTLOOK ARE THAT LOWER THAN NORMAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION COULD OCCUR. LESS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION MEANS THAT TOP SOILS COULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL, AND STREAM FLOWS WOULD BENEFIT, TOO. FOR RESERVOIR LEVELS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY, MUCH HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RAIN MUST OCCUR. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE BULK OF EAST TENNESSEE, EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED. ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TENNESSEE, AND FOR VIRGINIA AREAS ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MAY, STREAMS IN THE REGION EXPERIENCED A GENERAL DROP IN WATER VOLUME DUE TO SPORADIC RAINS FOR THE SEASON. ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR FLOODING DID OCCUR ON SMALLER STREAMS AND IN SOME URBAN AREAS FROM LOCAL THUNDERSTORMS, THE WATERS RECEDED MORE RAPIDLY THAN NORMAL. FLOWS FOR THE DATE ARE STILL IN THE LOWER THAN NORMAL RANGE WITH THOSE IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE RUNNING NEAR RECORD LOWS, AGAIN. BECAUSE OF THIS, RESERVOIRS ARE FILLING MORE SLOWLY THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD. WHILE TOP SOILS ARE WETTER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN WEEKS, GROUND WATER IS STILL LOW. THE OUTLOOK FOR LARGE TRIBUTARIES OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH EARLY SUMMER IS FOR A LESS THAN NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING. THIS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM AND THE NUMBER OF HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN THE PERIOD. BUT IT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE HYDROGRAPHY OF THE INDIVIDUAL STREAM. THINGS LIKE LOCAL GEOGRAPHY, WHETHER SINKHOLES ACCOUNT FOR MUCH UNDERGROUND STORAGE, LOCAL LAND USE, FLORA, AND SO FORTH, WILL ALSO MAKE A DIFFERENCE. TROPICAL STORM SEASON BEGINS JUNE 1 AND CONTINUES THROUGH OCTOBER. THE PASSAGE OF A FEW SUCH STORMS THROUGH THE REGION, WITHOUT DOING ACTUAL DAMAGE, WOULD GREATLY BENEFIT STREAMS, RESERVOIRS, AND AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON OR BEFORE JUNE 6, 2008, DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION. IF NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES OCCUR IN THE DROUGHT SITUATION, IT WILL BE LATER THAN SOONER. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION AND KEEP YOU ABREAST. RELATED WEB SITES... FOR ONE-STOP SHOPPING ON THE DROUGHT IN THE REGION GO TO HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX/HYDRO/DROUGHT07/MAIN.PHP OR YOU CAN GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV THEN CLICK ON THE EAST TENNESSEE REGION, AND THEN CLICK ON THE DROUGHT INFORMATION LINK AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MORRISTOWN, TENNESSEE HOME PAGE. YOU MAY ALSO VISIT WWW.TVA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LAKES LEVELS, STREAMFLOWS AND RAINFALL IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY SYSTEM. STREAMFLOW DATA CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AT HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT AND THEN CLICKING ON YOUR STATE OF INTEREST. ADDITIONAL LONG TERM STREAMFLOW FORECASTS CAN BE OBTAINED AT THE NWS MORRISTOWN "ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES" WEBSITE AT HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MRX FOR SPECIFIC DATA, DROUGHT INDICES, AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT PICTURE WITH CLICKABLE ZOOMING, GO TO HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... APPRECIATION FOR THE DATA IN THIS DOCUMENT GO TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY (TVA), UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS), THE STATES OF TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA, THE COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA, THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE), THE NATIONAL PARK SERVICE (NPS), THE NATIONAL FOREST SERVICE (NFS), THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA AT LINCOLN FOR HOSTING THE DROUGHT MONITOR WEBSITE, AND NUMEROUS COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS. ALSO, THANKS GO TO VARIOUS MEDIA OUTLETS INCLUDING TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS AND NEWSPAPERS, FOR ASKING THE QUESTIONS THE DRIVE THE GATHERING OF DATA AND IMPACT INFORMATION. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... FOR MORE INFORMATION OR FOR MEDIA INTERVIEWS PLEASE CONTACT: BRIAN BOYD SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST/METEOROLOGIST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 5974 COMMERCE BLVD. MORRISTOWN, TN 37814 423-586-1964 (MEDIA ONLY; FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE) 423-586-2296 (ALL OTHER CALLS; MAY GET VOICE MAIL) 423-586-6429 (FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE, NON-MEDIA CALLS, IF 2296 IS NOT AVAILABLE) EMAIL: BRIAN.BOYD@NOAA.GOV WEBSITE: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX NOTE: IN THE EVENT THE ABOVE PERSON IS NOT AVAILABLE, OTHER STAFF MEMBERS WILL BE ABLE TO HELP YOU.