000 FGUS74 KMRX 262003 ESFMRX NCC039-043-TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-065-067- 073-089-091-093-105-107-115-121-123-129-139-143-145-151-153-155- 163-171-173-179-VAC105-167-169-191-195-270815- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 303 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2011 /203 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011/ ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES...SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL EAST TENNESSEE...THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA... AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXTENDING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT ONE HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES IN THE AREA OF CONCERN. FOR THE SECOND 24 HOUR PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY FROM ONE AND ONE HALF TO THREE AND ONE HALF INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR THE 2 DAY PERIOD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RUNOFF FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FURTHER AND THE TIMING BECOMES CLEARER. SOME OF THE RIVERS ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE WILL RISE AND MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. THERE IS A SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO FURTHER UPDATES TO THE FORECAST. $$ TD