000
FXUS64 KSHV 112021
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
321 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NW UT...AND 
ALREADY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS IS DRAWING A 
HEALTHY FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE NORBERT INTO SE 
AZ...NM...AND WEST TEXAS.  CLOSER TO HOME...AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS 
MUCH OF THE GULF COAST...W/TEXTBOOK CLOUD STREETS OVER THE 
FOUR-STATE AREA.  MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH 
AS IT MOVES NE...AND EVENTUALLY PINCH OFF THE BASE LATE 
SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHICH THEN OPENS AND MOVES EAST...PUSHING A COLD 
FRONT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.  AS THIS FEATURE NEARS...RIDGING 
WILL MOVE ENE...STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW.  MODELS STILL HINT AT 
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN CHANCES 
INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FRONT RANGE.  BEST 
CHANCES LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/FROPA.  THURSDAY 
INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS...W/THE GFS BUILDING 
A RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND DRYING THINGS OUT...WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS 
THE RIDGE FURTHER WEST AND BRINGS A SECOND TROUGH THRU THE AREA 
FRIDAY.  CONSENSUS FAVORS THE ECMWF...SO WE/VE THROWN IN SLIGHT 
CHANCES POPS FOR THE SECOND TROUGH...THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY 
NIGHT.  FOR TEMPS...DIDN/T STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE...BUT IF THE 
ECMWF PANS OUT...EXTENDED TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE TRENDED DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE MORNING DISCUSSION...AS SCT CU FIELD THIS 
AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. COULD STILL 
SEE CU FIELD LINGER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/WRN LA/SE 
OK/EXTREME SW AR...AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL 
RIDGE...WHICH WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING ACROSS SE AR/NE LA. BNDRY 
LYR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10-15KTS OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT A TAD 
LIGHTER ACROSS SCNTRL AR/NE LA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP REDUCED VSBYS TO 
A MINIMUM. BUT GIVEN THESE SE WINDS...MAY SEE SCT STRATOCU FIELD 
NEAR 2KFT DEVELOP OVER SW LA/SE TX BETWEEN 09-12Z SUNDAY...AND 
SPREAD NW INTO E TX/WRN LA. COULD ALSO SEE SCT/POSSIBLY BKN MVFR 
CIGS DEVELOPING BY MIDMORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD 
LIFT INTO A SCT VFR CU FIELD BY MIDDAY. SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL 
DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS BY 
LATE MORNING. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  83  64  82  66 /   0   0   0  20   0 
MLU  63  83  64  82  66 /   0   0   0   0   0 
DEQ  62  82  61  82  65 /   0   0   0   0   0 
TXK  64  82  64  81  66 /   0   0   0  20   0 
ELD  62  82  64  85  66 /   0   0   0   0   0 
TYR  65  84  65  85  66 /   0   0   0   0   0 
GGG  64  84  63  84  66 /   0   0   0  20   0 
LFK  63  85  65  86  66 /   0   0   0  20   0 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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