000
FXUS62 KTBW 091501
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
958 AM EST THU FEB 9 2012

.UPDATE...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA WITH 
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATER TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. 
BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND THE 
DEEP SOUTH WILL KEEP GENERALLY N/NE FLOW TODAY. NO RAIN HAS BEEN 
OBSERVED WITH THIS CLOUD COVER...BUT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE 
STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE 
STILL RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF 
A FROPA FROM WEDNESDAY. 

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS 
THE AREA...WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS BY ONE OR TWO 
DEGREES. REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO ADDITIONAL 
CHANGES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FROM 358 AM EST TODAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NNW OF THE AREA INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS UPPER ENERGY TO STREAM OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT
OVER THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE US THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
SUBSIDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S NORTH...AND IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH EACH MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN COOL TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AT OFFSHORE BUOY 42036 ARE SURGING TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS 
WITH SEAS OF NEAR 6 FEET. WILL RAISE AN EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE 
THROUGH 7 PM EST. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY 
NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA 
INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS 
WILL REMAIN NEAR CAUTIONARY VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE 
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REYNES
MARINE...REYNES/COLSON
SHORT TERM...COLSON
AVIATION...FLEMING