000 FXCA20 KWBC 091913 PMDCA TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 212 PM EST THU FEB 09 2012 DISCUSSION FROM FEB 09/00 UTC. AT LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA-SOUTH FLORIDA-GULF TO TAMAULIPAS IN NORTHEAST MEXICO. DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HRS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WHILE THE TRAILING END RETROGRESSES ACROSS TAMAULIPAS TO THE RIO BRAVO/NUEVO LEON. BY 48-60 HRS A NEW FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND THROUGH 66/72 HRS IT WILL MERGE WITH/REPLACE THE OLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH. A POLAR RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS MIDWEST USA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...FAVORING A 25-30KT WIND SURGE. THIS WILL DRIVE THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH...AND BY 72 HRS THE FRONT WILL THEN SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS-WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN/CAMPECHE SOUND. AT 84 HRS IT WILL CONTINUE TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE-NORTHERN GUATEMALA/ SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO...TO CONTINUE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE TURKS/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS-EASTERN CUBA-CAYMAN ISLANDS-BELIZE BY 96 HRS. BRISK NORTHERLIES WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. AS THE TRAILING END OF THE FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. AS THE NEW FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THIS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM BY 72-84 HRS. OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS/WESTERN CUBA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. ACROSS THE YUCATAN/BELIZE TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO THEN EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS TO ALSO DEVELOP BY 66/72 HRS...WHEN IT IS TO EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN CUBA-JAMAICA TO EASTERN NICARAGUA. THROUGH 84-96 HRS IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHILE TRAILS TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO COSTA RICA. ACROSS EASTERN CUBA-JAMAICA THIS WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM...WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY 96 HRS. OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA-ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA/SAN ANDRES EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. A MID/UPPER LEVELS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO/BAJA PENINSULA. A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN BAJA ANCHORS THIS AXIS. THIS FEATURE IS NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW THROUGH 54-60 HRS...THEN WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH LATER IN THE CYCLE. THIS IS LONGER THAN WHAT GFS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND CLOSER TO WHAT THE ECMWF/UKMET GLOBAL MODELS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED. AS A RESULT...INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS GOING TO BE WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN WHAT WE PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS NOT GOING TO BE AS INTENSE. AS THE TROUGH MEANDERS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IT WILL SUSTAIN A WARM/MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MEXICO. ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL-ORIENTAL AND DEL SUR...THIS IS TO FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. THROUGH 36 HRS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...AND BY 36-60 HRS THIS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. OVER THE CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL HOLD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AFTER 54/60 HRS...THE RIDGE IS TO THEN ERODE AS A POLAR TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC. BY 60-84 HRS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONFINE TO CENTRAL AMERICA-CARIBBEAN BASIN TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. FLAT RIDGE WILL THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A CLOSED HIGH OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA WILL ANCHOR THIS RIDGE THROUGH 24 HRS....WITH HIGH TO GRADUALLY SETTLE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA LATER IN THE FORECAST. THIS IS TO CONTINUE FAVORING A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN...STRENGTHENING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA LATER IN THE CYCLE. AT LOW LEVELS MODELS INITIALIZE A RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF 20N. THIS IS TO ALSO ERODE DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HRS AS POLAR TROUGH MOVES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE RIDGE ERODES... AND GRADIENT SLACKENS...THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS THEY ARE TO PEAK AROUND 15-20KT...AND BY 60 HRS EXPECTING WINDS OF 10-15KT WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY 72-96 HRS. MEANWHILE... PERTURBATIONS IN THE TRADES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS...WITH ONE TO ENTER PUERTO RICO LATER THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH 48-60 HRS. ALTHOUGH BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ACROSS AND SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX...SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MAKE IT ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY/EARLY TOMORROW...TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM...WITH MOST INTENSE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER PERTURBATION TO THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS CYCLE...TO CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH 54-66 HRS. OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA THIS WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE OVER JAMAICA EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM THROUGH 36 HRS. OVER NICARAGUA IT WILL THEN SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...THE ITCZ ENTERS THE CONTINENT OVER SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA. THIS IS TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS IT IS TO ANCHOR ALONG A SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE WEST OF CHOCO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CAUCA VALLEY. ACROSS EJE CAFETERO WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. ACROSS THE CAUCA/CAUCA VALLEY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY...MOST INTENSE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS TO EXTEND TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN GUIANAS. TROUGH WILL REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE EARLY IN THE CYCLE...AND WILL THEN PERSIST BEYOND 84 HRS. SURINAME AND GUYANA ARE TO GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...WITH EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTED THROUGH 30-36 HRS. EARLY ON...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. THIS WILL THEN DECREASE TO 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. ACROSS FRENCH GUIANA A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...WITH A GRADUAL SURGE IN ACTIVITY/MOISTURE EXPECTED LATER ON DAY 03-04. MEANWHILE...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. THIS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SANCHEZ...FAC (COLOMBIA) DAVISON...NCEP (USA) $$