000 FXHW40 KWBC 191331 PMDHCO PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EST THU JAN 19 2012 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2012 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE AROUND ZERO TO NEGATIVE ONE DEGREE C. FROM JANUARY 2011 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 41.11 INCHES (111 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 15.67 INCHES (92 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 11.74 INCHES (66 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 97.66 INCHES (77 PERCENT OF NORMAL) NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HILO AND KAHULUI IN FEBRUARY 2012. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR HAWAII IN FEBRUARY 2012. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B40 71.4 0.5 A40 5.0 8.4 11.1 KAHULUI B40 71.9 0.6 A40 0.9 1.1 1.8 HONOLULU EC 73.3 0.5 A40 0.7 1.0 1.4 LIHUE EC 71.7 0.6 A40 1.3 1.8 4.0 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2012 - FMA 2013 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. DURING THE LAST 4-WEEKS - EQUATORIAL SSTS WERE MORE THAN 0.5 DEGREE C BELOW AVERAGE EAST OF 155E AND MORE THAN 1 DEGREE C BELOW AVERAGE NEAR THE DATE LINE AND IN SMALL REGIONS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PACIFIC. THE NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PACIFIC. ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ANOMALIES ARE CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA. ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. CONVECTION REMAINED SUPPRESSED IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC AND ENHANCED OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA AND PARTS OF INDONESIA AND THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. MOST MODELS PREDICT A WEAK OR MODERATE STRENGTH LA NINA TO PEAK DURING THE DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY SEASON - AND THEN TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING SEASON BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE MARCH-APRIL-MAY PERIOD. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR A WEAK TO MODERATE LA NINA THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2012. NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HONOLULU FROM FMA TO MAM 2012, AND LIHUE FROM FMA TO AMJ 2012. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS FORECAST FROM FMA TO MAM 2012 BASED ON NCEP FORECAST TOOLS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2012 EC 71.7 0.4 A40 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2012 EC 72.0 0.5 A40 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2012 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2012 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2012 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2012 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2012 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2012 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2012 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2012 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2013 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2013 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2013 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2012 EC 72.3 0.4 A40 3.3 4.1 6.4 MAM 2012 EC 73.0 0.4 A40 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2012 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.3 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2012 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2012 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2012 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2012 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2012 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2012 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2012 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2013 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2013 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2013 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.3 4.1 6.4 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2012 A40 73.8 0.4 A40 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2012 A40 74.8 0.4 A40 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2012 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2012 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2012 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2012 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2012 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2012 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2012 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2012 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2013 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2013 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2013 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2012 A40 72.1 0.5 A40 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2012 A40 72.8 0.5 A40 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2012 A40 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2012 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2012 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2012 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2012 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2012 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2012 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2012 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2013 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2013 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2013 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU FEB 16, 2012.