000 FXUS06 KWBC 082000 PMDMRD PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD 300 PM EST WED FEBRUARY 08 2012 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 14 - 18 2012 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN, DEPICTING A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS, AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF-BASED MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HIGHER 500-HPA HEIGHTS ALONG THE EAST COAST COMPARED TO THE GFS-BASED MODELS. SPREAD IS RELATIVELY LOW AMONG THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS PREFERRED DUE TO GOOD CONTINUITY AND SUPPORT FROM THE OPERATIONAL 0Z/6Z GFS MODEL RUNS. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ELEVATE THE CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, CENTRAL ROCKIES, SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, AND MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. ON DAYS 6 AND 7, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THESE AREAS. THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTS IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WHERE ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. ON DAY 6, SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A SUBSEQUENT TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ALONG ITS TRACK, HIGH PROBABLITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST DUE TO ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH ALOFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK EXISTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE THE STRONGER NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE, PER THE GFS-BASED MODELS, WOULD RESULT IN MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THAN THE ONSHORE FLOW PREDICTED BY THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ITS OPERATIONAL RUN. DUE TO VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS, NEAR MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS COUPLED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE NORTH PACIFIC JET DIRECTED TOWARDS SOUTHERN ALASKA. THEREFORE, ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL OF THE DAY: 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 16 - 22 2012 GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE THAT A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WITH DISAGREEMENT CONTINUING ON THE STRENGTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE AMPLITUDE OF A NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE. THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHILE THE 0Z/6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE. LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE 0Z GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH THE POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE LOWER 48. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ELEVATES THE CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHILE ANOMALOUS WARMTH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD TILT THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE TOOL INDICATES HIGH ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A NEUTRAL OR POSITIVE NAO INDEX, FORECAST BY ALL 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ENHANCE THE ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. HIGHEST ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ALONG THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK, EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST. ANOMALOUS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS ALASKA WHERE ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASSIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 16 ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19930208 - 19810119 - 19830120 - 19870210 - 19980202 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19930208 - 19810118 - 19830123 - 19650120 - 19810123 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR FEB 14 - 18 2012 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N B WYOMING N N UTAH B A ARIZONA B B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR FEB 16 - 22 2012 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N N UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA A N IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$