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Moderate to Severe Drought Conditions Return

Montra Lockwood, Service Hydrologist

The latest Drought Monitor and Palmer Drought Severity Index show moderate to severe drought conditions have returned across the southern half of Louisiana.  Moderate drought conditions exist across Southeast Texas. High pressure at the surface and aloft has become re-established over the region, pushing storm systems north of the area.
 

Click image below for larger version
Drought monitor image


While rains earlier this year caused the drought to subside, extremely dry conditions have returned. In fact, the last significant rain event across Southwest Louisiana and Southeast Texas was Hurricane Rita in late September. Although some locations have occasionally experienced localized heavy rains during the past 12 months, Rita was actually the only significant widespread rain event during this time.

The following table shows monthly totals and departure from normal for each month since last April, as well as the 12-month totals, departure from normal and percentage of normal:
 

 

Lake Charles Lafayette New Iberia Alexandria Beaumont
Apr '05
DFN
1.16
-2.48
1.60
-3.12
1.46
-2.44
2.84
-2.10
0.88
-2.96
May '05
DFN
3.73
-2.33
1.11
-4.20
2.44
-2.26
1.17
-4.18
2.69
-3.14
 Jun '05
DFN
1.63
-4.44
2.91
-3.15
3.47
-2.35
1.26
-3.62
1.83
-4.75
 Jul '05
DFN
5.59
+0.46
3.16
-3.49
7.42
-0.03
3.02
-1.16
10.31
+5.08
 Aug '05
DFN
3.18
-1.67
3.27
-1.71
2.33
-4.15
2.23
-2.12
3.22
-1.63
Sep '05
DFN
8.74
+2.79
7.15
+1.85
8.68
+3.27
2.17
-1.83
8.89
+2.79
Oct '05
DFN
1.35
-2.59
0.74
-3.28
0.43
-3.56
0.60
-4.22
1.20
-3.46
Nov '05
DFN
2.40
-2.21
3.69
-0.95
0.68
-0.84
4.07
-1.96
1.87
-2.42
Dec '05
DFN
3.92
-0.68
6.20
+0.69
2.26
-2.94
3.80
-2.59
2.16
-3.09
Jan '06
DFN
1.92
-3.60
3.29
-2.96
0.68
-3.74
4.07
-2.09
1.87
-3.82
Feb '06
DFN
2.73
-0.55
4.71
+0.49
3.31
-0.88
6.28
+1.50
1.82
-1.53
Mar '06
DFN
0.19
-3.35
0.15
-4.36
0.09
-4.07
3.53
-2.25
1.43
-2.32
           
12-mon
DFN
36.54
-20.65
37.98
-24.19
35.55
-23.99
34.77
-26.62
38.64
-21.25
%norm 64 61 60 57 65
DFN=Departure from Normal            %norm=Percentage of Normal


This March was the 2nd driest on record for Lake Charles, Lafayette and New Iberia. And so far in April, many locations are on track for another record dry month.  Most locations have received less than one- tenth of an inch of rain.
 

Fire Danger Impacts
Despite the extremely dry conditions, fire danger remains low. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index ranges from 200 to 400, and no parishes or counties have burn bans in effect at this time. However if no rain occurs soon, the fire danger will increase as evaporation increases in response to the longer days.
 

Click image below for larger version

Keetch-Byram Drought Index image


Agricultural Impacts
Short-term crop moisture continues to be reduced with increased evaporation. Soil moisture is currently about 1 1/2 to 4 inches below normal. These below normal levels have been maintained for the past 12 months, which has resulted in some crop damage. Currently, most crops are rated in fair condition.

Another effect of the drought has been a sharp reduction in crawfish production in south Louisiana, estimated at 70 percent. According to crawfish farmers, salt deposited by Rita is harming crawfish ponds and rain is needed to flush out the salt water. In addition, low river levels have reduced crawfish numbers.
 

Hydrologic Impacts
Reservoir levels are running about 1 to 3 feet below normal pool levels at Sam Rayburn Reservoir and Steinhagen Lake. Levels are about 4 feet below normal at Toledo Bend Reservoir.

Streamflows on rivers across Southwest Louisiana and Southeast Texas are extremely low. Nearly all river locations are experiencing streamflows less than 10 percent of normal, with some at all-time low levels.

Outlook
No rain is expected over the next 5 to 7 days as high pressure remains in control. medium range forecasts through late April indicate near normal temperatures and precipitation. Current long range outlooks though the end of June indicate above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.

La Nina conditions continue in the tropical Pacific and are expected to gradually weaken over the next 3 to 6 months. This typically results in above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for the region. However, this is balanced by the potential for an active tropical season which may result in beneficial rains should a tropical system affect the area.
 

Click image below for larger version

Seasonal Drought Outlook image


For further information on the drought, please visit the following sites: 

NOAA Drought Information Page
http://www.drought.noaa.gov 

Climate Prediction Center
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov


Click here for the previous Drought Statement
 

Page last modified: April 17, 2006

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