Ready or not, the Atlantic hurricane season is here, which officially began on June 1^st.  In a normal year, ten tropical cyclones develop within the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico.  Of these ten named storms, six on average become hurricanes, with two to three hurricanes becoming major (at least category 3) in any given year.  The 2003 season had a total of sixteen named storms, of which seven were hurricanes, and three were major. Of all the storms that occurred last year, Tropical Storms Bill, Grace, Henri, and Hurricanes Claudette and Isabel affected the United States. Hurricane Erika struck northeast Mexico, but did spread tropical storm conditions over extreme south Texas.
 

Of local interest, Tropical Storm Bill (making landfall on June 30, 2003) became the fifth tropical cyclone to affect the Louisiana coast within a calendar year, which is a record. The other four storms were Tropical Storms Bertha (8/5/02), Hanna (9/14/02), Isidore (9/26/02), and Hurricane Lili (10/3/02) from the 2002 season.
 

The last major hurricane to affect the area we serve was Andrew, making landfall as a category three hurricane along St. Mary Parish Louisiana the morning of August 26, 1992.  The last three hurricanes (all category one) to affect Southeast Texas were Jerry on October 15, 1989, Chantal on August 1, 1989, and Bonnie on June 26, 1986.  For portions of Southwest and South-Central Louisiana, Hurricane Lili was the first storm to hit Vermilion parish in seventeen years. Before Lili, one has to dig back to 1985 with Hurricanes Danny (8/15), and Juan (last week of October) to affect Vermilion or Cameron parishes. Category three Hurricanes Carmen of September 1974 and Hilda of October 1964 affected portions of St. Mary Parish. Edith affected Cameron and Vermilion parishes of Louisiana September 1971 as a category two storm.  And, last but not least, the worst hurricane to affect the area was Audrey on June 27, 1957.  She made landfall over western Cameron Parish/eastern Jefferson County as a category four hurricane, causing massive salt water flooding, destruction, and claiming many lives.
 

What can we expect this year? Well known and respected professor of Atmospheric Science Dr. Bill Gray from Colorado State University has been studying hurricanes for many years.  A number of years ago, he and his colleagues have developed a seasonal forecast for an upcoming hurricane season.  This year he predicts the entire Atlantic hurricane basin to have a total of fourteen named storms, of which eight become hurricanes.
 

What does this mean for our area? Absolutely nothing! It takes only one storm to make your season a horrible one. For example, Hurricane Alicia hit Galveston in August 1983, during a season which saw only three other storms in the Atlantic.

2004 Atlantic Storm Names

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Classification