ENSO Discussion:  SST anomalies centered on the week of June 25th are +0.4 for Nino 1+2, 0.0 for Nino 3.0,  -0.3 for Nino 3.4  and -0.5 for Nino 4.0 (map of Nino areas). SST's in the eastern and central tropical Pacific have continued to slowly warm through June and overall conditions are indicative of a neutral state except in the Nino 4.0 region were very weak La Nina conditions linger.  The latest daily SST analysis for 1 July  shows a band of warmer water along the equator east of 150W to the coast of South America and weak cool SST anomalies extending westward past the Dateline to around 150E (roughly the Nino 4.0 area). Overall, conditions in the equatorial Pacific can be categorized a neutral as the La Nina episode of 2007-2008 has come to an end. 

The latest ensemble runs of the CPC CFS model for Nino 3.4 and Nino 3.0 areas continue to show a warming trend this summer (albeit weaker than previous runs) with SSTs perhaps reaching near +0.5 by mid-summer and then gradually cooling in the late summer with  neutral conditions continuing through the upcoming dry season.  SST anomalies from late summer through the early winter are most relevant to the forecast for the upcoming dry season (November 1-April 30) and latest seasonal run of the CFS  indicates anomalies on the warm side of neutral (0 to +.5). At this long range the uncertainty in the forecast is high and there is considerable spread among the SST models through the 2008-2009 winter with about half predicting a little warmer than normal and half a little cooler than normal. At this long range the initial dry season forecast will be based on an assumption of ENSO neutral conditions and forecasts will be refined as we get closer to late summer and SST trends and forecasts become more reliable.

This forecast will be updated by August 15th.

Other teleconnections (NAO, AO, PNA, and MJO) can play a major role on Florida Dry Season weather.  They can act to enhance or suppress the impact of an El Nino, particularly if its not strong . Refer to our latest research report for background. Please review the Storminess, Rainfall and Temperature pages for discussions on impacts. 

For a more in depth discussion on ENSO and it's effects on Florida see our "EL NIÑO-Southern Oscillation And Florida Educational Material." For a formal definition of El Niño and La Niña see CPC's FAQ on "What is El Niño and La Niña."