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Rainfall Discussion:
The latest
ENSO
Discussion indicates that ENSO neutral is the
most likely scenario during the upcoming dry season (November 1 -
April 30). Thus this initial dry season rainfall
forecast is for near normal rainfall for Florida (statistical forecasts
of 13 to 14" with long-term average ~14
inches). However, in recent years, statistical guidance has
over-estimated rainfall based on ENSO alone. It may be more likely that
rainfall will be on the dry side of normal. The wild card could be
tropical or subtropical system rainfall that persists into November as
sometimes happens with active tropical systems. The
official CPC forecast is for drier than normal conditions across
about the northern half of Florida for the upcoming dry season. As we get closer to the start of the dry season the climatic
trends and forecasts will become clearer and the forecast will be
refined as the summer progresses.
This discussion will be update by September 15th.
For a more in depth discussion on ENSO and it's effects on Florida's Rainfall see our "Florida's Dry Season Rainfall and EL NIÑO-Southern Oscillation Educational Material." |
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Discussion last updated on
8/7/2008 by Bart Hagemeyer
Disclaimer
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National Weather Service Forecast Office
