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Temperature Discussion:
The latest ENSO Discussion
indicates that neutral ENSO conditions are most likely during the
upcoming dry season (November 1 - April 30).
Thus this initial dry season forecast is for near normal to
slightly above normal mean
temperature for Florida (long-term average ~71.2°F).
However, with neutral conditions the odds of a freeze increase. The
official CPC temperature outlook is for warmer than normal
temperatures. As we get closer to the start of the dry season the climatic trends and
forecasts will become clearer and the forecast will be refined as the
summer progresses. This discussion will be update by August 15th.
The relationship to La Nina and overall average temperature is fairly reliable, but the relationship of La Nina to temperature extremes such as major freezes and significant warm spells in winter is not as strong (latest presentation). The Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) play large roles in controlling temperature in Florida during the dry season, and at this time there are no reliable long-range forecasts of the AO/NAO (
see our recent research for background).
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National Weather Service Forecast Office
