000
WTUS82 KMLB 020357
HLSMLB
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
021000-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1155 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2004


...HURRICANE WATCHES RAISED FOR MOST OF EAST FLORIDA COAST AS FRANCES
HEADS WEST...

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH ISSUED FOR THE INTERIOR COUNTIES OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN
BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN
AND OKEECHOBEE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO FLORIDA
CITY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH ISSUED FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...
ORANGE...LAKE...AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES...

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT THE CENTER OF SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 585 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE BRINGS FRANCES...A MAJOR HURRICANE...
ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
FRANCES. FOR THIS REASON IT WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR FLORIDA
RESIDENTS NOT TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE CURRENT DETAILED TRACK
FORECAST. INSTEAD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE COASTAL AREAS UNDER
THE HURRICANE WATCH AND THE INLAND COUNTIES UNDER THE INLAND
HURRICANE WIND WATCH. FRANCES IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND ITS WIND
IMPACTS WILL SPREAD WELL INLAND.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE URGES PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
HAVE SUPPLIES ON HAND AND HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
HURRICANE BECOMING AN IMMEDIATE THREAT. THIS COULD BECOME A LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO BEGIN
THINKING ABOUT A PLAN AND MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR YOURSELF AND
FAMILY ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS OR IN A MOBILE
HOME.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE EYE OF FRANCES MOVES ONSHORE.
SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE DAMAGE IS LIKELY IN THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
AS MUCH AS A FOOT OF RAIN COULD FALL IN SOME AREAS AS FRANCES CROSSES
THE STATE. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE GREATER DUE TO THE SIZE
OF FRANCES AND ITS RELATIVE SLOW FORWARD MOTION. IT IS FORECAST TO
BE MOVING ONLY 7 TO 10 MPH OVER THE PENINSULA.  A FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY ON THURSDAY.
PLACES ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MOST
VULNERABLE TO SERIOUS FLOODING. RESIDENTS ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR FLOODING IF EXCESSIVE RAIN DEVELOPS.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRIDAY...THEN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY SWELL WILL
PRECEDE THE HURRICANE THURSDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM WINDS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH
AND SPREADING NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE HURRICANE TRACK THERE WILL BE A THREAT
OF TORNADOES OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MAINLY ON SATURDAY
WHEN THE CENTER OF FRANCES PASSES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE OUTER RAINBANDS
OF FRANCES...MAKING THIS THE FIRST THREAT TO ARRIVE OVER THE AREA.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB


$$

DECKER