000 WTUS82 KMLB 020956 HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 021600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 555 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES STILL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST FLORIDA COAST... ...IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT CENTRAL FLORIDIANS STAY INFORMED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TAKING THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO SAVE LIFE AND PROPERTY... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AS FRANCES CONTINUES ITS APPROACH... ...AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERIOR COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ALL COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE... ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN AND OKEECHOBEE. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO CRAIG KEY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ALSO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD ANTICIPATE THE POSTING OF HURRICANE WARNINGS LATER TODAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST OR ABOUT 520 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE URGES PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO HAVE A CLEAR PLAN AS THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE DAY TIME HOURS TODAY IN ORDER TO SECURE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. BE SURE TO STORE OR REMOVE ALL LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. WITH EXTREME WINDS...EVEN SOMEWHAT HEAVIER OBJECTS CAN BECOME AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE. BE SURE THAT YOU HAVE ALL OF YOUR SUPPLIES ON HAND...INCLUDING NON-PERISHABLE FOOD AND WATER. HAVE EXTRA CASH ON HAND AND LOCATE YOUR INSURANCE POLICIES. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...PLAN ON LEAVING. BE SURE YOU KNOW THE LOCATION OF THE NEAREST SHELTER. FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...AND LEAVE IMMEDIATELY IF TOLD TO DO SO. IF YOU ARE EVACUATING THE AREA...LEAVE AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE. BE SURE TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECAST TO ENSURE THAT YOU ARE SAFELY REMOVED FROM FRANCES. REMEMBER...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ARE TO BE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH FRANCES ARE NEAR 145 MPH...BUT SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL BE LIKELY. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK OF FRANCES. FRANCES IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT SOME LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. WITH CATEGORY FOUR FORCE WINDS...LARGE TREES ARE BLOWN DOWN WITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIALS... WINDOWS...AND DOORS. SMALL STRUCTURES MAY EXPERIENCE COMPLETE ROOF FAILURES...WITH MOBILE HOMES EXPERIENCING COMPLETE DESTRUCTION. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MOVING ONSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND THE CORE OF FRANCES WILL MAKE LANDFALL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE EYE OF FRANCES MOVES ONSHORE. SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE DAMAGE IS LIKELY IN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE FLOOD THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. TEN TO TWELVE INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS FRANCES CROSSES THE STATE. THESE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF FRANCES...AND THAT IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE PENINSULA. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER TRACK. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PLACES ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO SERIOUS FLOODING. RESIDENTS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR FLOODING IF EXCESSIVE RAIN DEVELOPS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... THE MARINE THREAT TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS EXTREME. FRANCES IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRIDAY... THEN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY SWELL WILL ALSO PRECEDE THE HURRICANE TODAY. TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO HURRICANE CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE TORNADO THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS MODERATE. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR TORNADOES. IMPORTANTLY...TORNADOES STAND TO BE THE FIRST THREAT TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER TRACK AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE COAST. OF COURSE...TORNADOES WITHIN THE INNER RAINBANDS AND EYEWALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB $$ DWS