000 WTUS82 KMLB 021454 HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 022200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING FOR FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS MUST BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FROM FLORIDA CITY TO FLAGLER BEACH INCLUDING ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST... ...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING ISSUED FOR INTERIOR COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE... ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN AND OKEECHOBEE. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO FLORIDA CITY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ALSO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE ...INLAND VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!!! PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST BE RUSHING THEIR HURRICANE PLANS TO COMPLETION TODAY. TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE DAY TIME HOURS AND GOOD WEATHER TODAY. FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...AND LEAVE IMMEDIATELY IF TOLD TO DO SO. IF YOU LIVE ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS OR IN A MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOME OR A FLOOD PRONE AREA YOU SHOULD SECURE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND EVACUATE. IF YOU ARE EVACUATING THE AREA...LEAVE AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE THREAT IS MUCH GREATER FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH FRANCES ARE NEAR 145 MPH...BUT SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL BE LIKELY. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK OF FRANCES. FRANCES IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT SOME LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. WITH CATEGORY FOUR FORCE WINDS...LARGE TREES ARE BLOWN DOWN WITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIALS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS. WELL BUILT HOMES WITHOUT HURRICANE SHUTTERS OR WINDOW COVERINGS CAN SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE. SMALL STRUCTURES MAY EXPERIENCE COMPLETE ROOF FAILURES...WITH MOBILE HOMES EXPERIENCING COMPLETE DESTRUCTION. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MOVING ONSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND THE CORE OF FRANCES WILL MAKE LANDFALL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE EYE OF FRANCES MOVES ONSHORE. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRANCES AT LEAST TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING HURRICANE CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE DAMAGE IS LIKELY IN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE FLOOD THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS MUCH GREATER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY. TEN TO TWELVE INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS FRANCES CROSSES THE STATE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF FRANCES...AND THAT IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE PENINSULA. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER TRACK. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PLACES ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO SERIOUS FLOODING. RESIDENTS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR FLOODING IF EXCESSIVE RAIN DEVELOPS. SANDBAGS ARE AVAILABLE AT MANY COUNTY LOCATIONS FOR RESIDENTS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... THE MARINE THREAT TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS EXTREME. FRANCES IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRIDAY... THEN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY SWELL WILL ALSO PRECEDE THE HURRICANE TODAY. TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO HURRICANE CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE TORNADO THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS MODERATE. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR TORNADOES. IMPORTANTLY...TORNADOES MAY BE THE FIRST THREAT TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER TRACK AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE COAST. OF COURSE...TORNADOES WITHIN THE INNER RAINBANDS AND EYEWALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB $$ HAGEMEYER