000 WTUS82 KMLB 030355 HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 031000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1155 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2004 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES STILL HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS FROM FLORIDA CITY TO FLAGLER BEACH INCLUDING ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING FOR INTERIOR COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE... ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN AND OKEECHOBEE. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO FLORIDA CITY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ALSO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE ...INLAND VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND MAY BE EXTENDED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!!! PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST RUSH HURRICANE PLANS TO COMPLETION AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LAST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FRIDAY TO COMPLETE PREPARATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF HIGH WINDS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...AND LEAVE IMMEDIATELY IF TOLD TO DO SO. IF YOU LIVE ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS OR IN A MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOME OR A FLOOD PRONE AREA YOU SHOULD SECURE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND EVACUATE. IF YOU ARE EVACUATING THE AREA...LEAVE AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE THREAT IS MUCH GREATER FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH FRANCES ARE NEAR 125 MPH. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN BEFORE...FRANCES IS STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY STILL LIKELY. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK OF FRANCES. FRANCES IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT EVEN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WINDS NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WITH WINDS OF THIS STRENGTH...LARGE TREES ARE BLOWN DOWN WITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIALS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS. WELL BUILT HOMES WITHOUT HURRICANE SHUTTERS OR WINDOW COVERINGS CAN SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE. SMALL STRUCTURES MAY EXPERIENCE COMPLETE ROOF FAILURES...WITH SOME MOBILE HOMES EXPERIENCING COMPLETE DESTRUCTION. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MOVING ONSHORE OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE EYE OF FRANCES MOVES ONSHORE. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRANCES AT LEAST TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING HURRICANE CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE DAMAGE IS LIKELY IN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... ONE OF THE MORE DANGEROUS ASPECTS OF THE PASSAGE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND MAY BE EXTENDED. 10 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS FRANCES CROSSES THE STATE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE SIZE OF FRANCES...AND ITS SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER TRACK. PLACES ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO SERIOUS FLOODING. RESIDENTS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR NEAR RECORD FLOODING IF EXCESSIVE RAIN DEVELOPS. SANDBAGS ARE AVAILABLE AT MANY COUNTY LOCATIONS FOR RESIDENTS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... THE MARINE THREAT TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS EXTREME. TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO HURRICANE CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE TORNADO THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS MODERATE. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR TORNADOES. IMPORTANTLY...TORNADOES MAY BE THE FIRST THREAT TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER TRACK AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE COAST. OF COURSE...TORNADOES WITHIN THE INNER RAINBANDS AND EYEWALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB $$ DECKER