000 WTUS82 KMLB 031837 HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 040030- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 238 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004 ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF FRANCES OFFSHORE MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES... ...HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA COAST... ...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING FOR ALL INTERIOR COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...HURRICANE WARNING FROM SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FLORIDA CITY INCLUDING ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE... ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN AND OKEECHOBEE. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO FLORIDA CITY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ALSO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE ...INLAND VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VERO BEACH AND 325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ORLANDO. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HURRICANE FRANCES HAS AFFORDED CENTRAL FLORIDIANS A LITTLE MORE TIME TO PREPARE DUE TO THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. WEATHER WILL BE GOOD DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THIS EXTRA TIME SHOULD BE USED WISELY FOR THOSE WHO REMAIN IN THE AREA TO COMPLETE THEIR ACTION PLANS. FRANCES IS STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE AND HEADING FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA...MAKING THIS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. DO NOT LET THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND GOOD WEATHER TODAY GIVE YOU A FALSE IMPRESSION THAT THE THREAT FROM FRANCES IS LESSENING. FRANCES IS MOVING SLOWLY AND COULD MOVE ALONG THE COAST OR MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST ON SHORT NOTICE AND INCREASE RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS ALL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREA MUST STAY VIGILANT. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS MUCH GREATER FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH FRANCES ARE NEAR 115 MPH. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN BEFORE...FRANCES IS STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...WITH SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY POSSIBLE. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK OF FRANCES. FRANCES IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT EVEN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WINDS NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WITH WINDS OF THIS STRENGTH...LARGE TREES ARE BLOWN DOWN WITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIALS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS. SMALL STRUCTURES MAY EXPERIENCE COMPLETE ROOF FAILURES...WITH SOME MOBILE HOMES EXPERIENCING COMPLETE DESTRUCTION. RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS WILL INCREASE IN BOTH FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS HIGH. 6 TO 9 FEET OF SURGE WILL BE COMMON...WITH HIGHEST SURGE LEVELS OF 9 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS....MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE EYE OF FRANCES MOVES ONSHORE. BATTERING WAVES WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN ALONG THE BEACHES GIVEN THE HIGH WINDS SPEEDS AND DURATION...WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE DAMAGE ALSO LIKELY IN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... ONE OF THE MORE DANGEROUS ASPECTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE FLOODING. THE SLOWER FRANCES MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA...THE GREATER THE FLOOD THREAT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. 8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS FRANCES CROSSES THE STATE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 18 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER TRACK. PLACES ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO SERIOUS FLOODING. RESIDENTS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR NEAR RECORD FLOODING IF EXCESSIVE RAIN DEVELOPS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... THE MARINE THREAT TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS EXTREME. TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO HURRICANE CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE TORNADO THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS NOT AS GREAT AS WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY. TORNADOES ARE LESS LIKELY WITH LANDFALLING ATLANTIC HURRICANES IN FLORIDA BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. TORNADOES MAY BE THE FIRST THREAT TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER TRACK AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE COAST. OF COURSE...TORNADOES WITHIN THE INNER RAINBANDS AND EYEWALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB $$ HAGEMEYER