000
WTUS82 KMLB 040329
HLSMLB
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
040959-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1129 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

...HURRICANE FRANCES DRIFTING TOWARD THE FLORIDA COAST...
...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING FOR ALL INTERIOR COUNTIES OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...HURRICANE WARNING FROM SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FLORIDA CITY
INCLUDING ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN
BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN
AND OKEECHOBEE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO
FLORIDA CITY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ALSO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE
...INLAND VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND MAY
BE EXTENDED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  6 MPH. HOWEVER...
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION CAN BE
EXPECTED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS
MAKES FRANCES A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AS FRANCES LANDFALL SATURDAY EVENING PEOPLE IN AND CLOSE TO THE
HURRICANE EYE WALL SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IN A SMALL ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR SUCH AS A CLOSET OR BATHROOM. PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST SHOULD NOT WAIT UNTIL MORNING TO
SEEK SHELTER.  EVACUATE TO A SUBSTANTIAL BUILDING OFF THE BARRIER
ISLANDS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
FRANCES HAS LOST A BIT OF HER PUNCH OVER THE LAST 8 HOURS BUT IS
STILL A DANGEROUS AND LARGE HURRICANE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS
NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY TIMING OF LANDFALL AND TRACK ACROSS
FLORIDA HAS SLOWED. LANDFALL IS NOW EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
SEBASTIAN INLET AND PALM BEACH SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL TAKE MOST
OF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.

RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS HAVE ALREADY SWEPT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH...ARE ALREADY BLOWING
IN THE PALM BEACH AREA AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO MARTIN...ST LUCIE
AND INDIAN RIVER OVER NIGHT.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS MARTIN...ST LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SUSTAINED 50 TO 60
MPH WINDS AND HURRICANE GUSTS WILL CROSS THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE CAN DAMAGE ROOFS...
WINDOWS...AND DOORS. SMALL STRUCTURES MAY EXPERIENCE COMPLETE ROOF
FAILURES...WITH SOME MOBILE HOMES DESTROYED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN AND WIDESPREAD POWER FAILURES.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
HIGH. 6 TO 9 FEET OF SURGE WILL BE COMMON...WITH HIGHEST SURGE LEVELS
OF 9 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS....MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE
RIGHT OF WHERE THE EYE OF FRANCES MOVES ONSHORE. BATTERING WAVES WILL
BE OF GREAT CONCERN ALONG THE BEACHES GIVEN THE HIGH WINDS SPEEDS AND
DURATION...WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE DAMAGE ALSO LIKELY IN THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
ONE OF THE MORE DANGEROUS ASPECTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE
FLOODING. THE SLOWER FRANCES MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA...THE GREATER
THE FLOOD THREAT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY...AND MAY BE EXTENDED. 8 TO
10 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS FRANCES CROSSES THE STATE WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 18 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER TRACK. PLACES ALREADY
SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO SERIOUS
FLOODING. RESIDENTS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR NEAR RECORD FLOODING.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
THE MARINE THREAT TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS
EXTREME. TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE ALREADY BLOWING OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND WILL INCREASE TO HURRICANE CONDITIONS
SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE TORNADO THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS NOT AS GREAT AS WITH
HURRICANE CHARLEY. TORNADOES ARE LESS LIKELY WITH LANDFALLING
ATLANTIC HURRICANES IN FLORIDA BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. TORNADOES MAY BE THE FIRST THREAT TO ARRIVE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS...ESPECIALLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER TRACK AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE COAST. OF
COURSE...TORNADOES WITHIN THE INNER RAINBANDS AND EYEWALL WILL LIKELY
OCCUR.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM
OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB

$$

DECKER