000
FXUS62 KMLB 250317
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 PM EST SUN DEC 24 2006


.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NRN
PENINSULA...PLACING THE MLB CWA SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
DEVELOPING CYCLONE.  CORRESPONDING RAIN TREND HAS BEEN SOLIDLY
DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...WITH MOST OF THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA PRECIP FREE.  LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE PROFILE DECREASES TO THE
S...AND WITH SOLID SRLY FLOW THRU H50...THE PROSPECT FOR ADDITIONAL
RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL BE RATHER SMALL.  SAT PICS CONFIRM THE DRIER AIR
WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN PENINSULA...WHILE THE H70
OMEGA/H50 VORTICITY/H25 DIVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW NEUTRAL OR WEAK
DYNAMIC LIFT AT BEST.

HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE NRN CWA GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY
TO THE DEBRIS CLOUD BLOW OFF FROM THE MCS OVER THE NE GOMEX...BUT
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...COVERAGE WILL BE SCT AT BEST.
UPDATES THIS EVENING TO REDUCE POPS TO 30 PCT OVER THE NRN THIRD OF
THE CWA...20 PCT OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF ALL BUT THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SLGT
CHC FOR MVFR SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC WINDS AT BUOY009 AND THE LAKE WORTH C-MAN STATION HAVE INCREASED
OUT OF THE SE AT 15-20KTS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
LOW OVER THE N CNTRL GOMEX CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND THE SURROUNDING
PRESSURE FIELD TIGHTENS UP.  WINDS NOT QUITE TO SCA CRITERIA...BUT
EXPECT THEM AREAWIDE NLT DAYBREAK.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE AFTN PACKAGE OTHER THAN TO REFRESH THE
WORDING...

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM.

.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM OFFSHORE.

$$

SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....BRAGAW