Hydrologic Outlooks
Hydrologic Outlooks - Spring Flood Potential
Every year during the late Winter and early Spring, hydrologic outlooks for flood potential are prepared and issued by the National Weather Service (NWS). Outlook guidance is prepared by the NWS River Forecast Centers (RFC) while the public issuance of the flood potential outlooks is handled by the local NWS Forecast Offices including NWS Norman.
The outlooks are based primarily on an assessment of pre-existing conditions (i.e., soil moisture, stream levels, river ice, snow cover, reservoir levels, etc.). This type of product provides insight into the possibility of future flooding. Areas where conditions are already wet are more likely to experience flooding if future rain falls and/or snow melts. In such wet areas, the increased likelihood of flooding will last as long as the wet conditions persist (or increase).
These outlooks, while based on an assessment of current conditions, may include general assumptions about future meteorological conditions, such as the expectation that an area will experience normal climatological conditions, or conditions indicated by long-term climate outlooks.
To see the Spring Flood Potential Outlooks for the rest of the nation, go to the NWS Hydrologic Information Center's (HIC) outlook product page. The HIC also has a flood threat graphic available.
The National Weather Service River Forecast Centers (RFC), including the Arkansas-Red River Forecast Center (ABRFC) in Tulsa, Oklahoma, issue one daily graphical outlook forecast- the Significant Flood Outlook Potential (FOP). For specific, official river forecasts and warnings, please refer to the local NWS offices.
Hydrologic Outlooks - Significant River Flooding
The Significant River Flood Outlook Potential (FOP) identifies areas where significant river flooding is possible, likely or imminent up to five days in the future. the RFCs define significant river flooding as flooding in the moderate, major, or record flood categories.
In general, flooding of moderate category or greater will result in conditions that adversely affect roads, residential, commercial, industrial, and/or agricultural areas and may require evacuation of people and/or livestock.
This graphic will not depict minor river flooding as this implies only minimal or no property damage with possibly some public inconvenience. The FOP is not intended to depict all small-scale events such as localized flooding and/or flash flooding.
The FOP comes in two scales -- National and RFC-wide.
The Hydrlogic Outlooks issued by NWS Norman are available in a text format, and can be found here.
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