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000 FXUS64 KLCH 222032 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 232 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009 .DISCUSSION...AREAS FRIDAY/SATURDAY WEATHER MAKER NOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH EAST TEXAS. ORIENTATION OF FEATURES PROVIDING A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND FLORIDA LOW MAINTAINING CONSIDERABLE STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA WITH MOISTURE LOCKED BENEATH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL INVERSION. OTHERWISE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING IN MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LIMITED CHANGES TO PREVIOUS GRID/FORECAST PACKAGE. MAINTAINING POPS TUESDAY AS NEXT UPPER TROF ADVANCES THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUNCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE INCLUDING A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH FROPA. THUS AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW END POPS. DID NOTE MORE MOISTURE/HIGHER POPS OFFERED BY THE NAM BUT WILL BE DISCOUNTING THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKING DRY AND COOL AS EAST CONUS TROF DEEPENS AND PLAINS RIDGES AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A REENFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR COMING DOWN THE PIKE THURSDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS SUNDAY. GFS SUGGESTING YET ANOTHER FROPA. ECMWF SUGGESTING A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF SAME BOUNDARY AS CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER OLD MEXICO. LATER SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK BUT OUTSIDE OF OUR CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST. && .MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING EASTERLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES TO THE EAST. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS MODERATE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 48 73 53 72 50 / 0 0 10 20 20 KBPT 48 72 57 73 50 / 0 0 20 30 10 KAEX 45 71 49 70 45 / 0 0 10 20 10 KLFT 51 71 52 73 50 / 0 0 10 20 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ MARCOTTE