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000 FXUS64 KLIX 222020 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 220 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SHORT TERM... MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD DECK AND POTENTIAL FOG. OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS WESTWARD TO SABINE RIVER AND WELL INTO THE GULF. A FEW BREAKS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. GIVEN THE AMBIENT GROUND MOISTURE AND NO REAL FLUSHING OF MOISTURE FROM TROUGH PASSAGE...WOULD SEEM THIS DECK WILL SETTLE INTO AN EXTENSIVE FOG BANK OVERNIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF WITH PRE-EMPTIVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS AS THE DIFFERENCE COULD MEAN JUST A LOW CEILING AND NEGLIGIBLE FOG...OR A FULL FLEDGED DENSE FOG BANK. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COOL MUCH LOWER THAN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES. MONDAY SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUD COVER AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM... NEXT FRONT EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT STILL APPEARS TO COME THROUGH ESSENTIALLY DRY. NO CHANGES MADE TO WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE GRIDS AS CURRENT TRENDS AND MODELS SUPPORT LATEST FORECAST. THE REGION GETS THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING PERIOD WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDING OFF TIL THE WEEKEND WITH APPROACH OF LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL GULF. && .AVIATION... AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE THE AREA. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH ALL SITES FINALLY P6SM...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR MSY AND OVER GPT. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BUT VIS/CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. VIS WILL HOVER AROUND THE MVFR/VFR LINE AND CIGS NEAR LIFR/IFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...CIGS AND VIS WILL FALL WITH TIME. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. VLIFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VIS AS WELL CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR SUNRISE. ALL CATEGORIES SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY TOMORROW AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. GPT WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST TO SEE THESE IMPROVEMENTS. MEFFER && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LOWERING AS AFFECTS FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABATE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK FRONT ENTERS GULF TUESDAY NIGHT TO PROVIDE HIGH PRESSURE RE-ENFORCEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE IMPLYING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND GETTING FORCED SOUTHWARD BY THE FRONT. IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO HIGHER LEVELS AND PROMPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL INDICATE AN INCREASE IN WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 50 69 48 71 / 0 0 10 10 BTR 48 71 49 73 / 0 0 10 10 MSY 54 70 52 73 / 0 0 10 10 GPT 52 70 50 71 / 0 0 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 24/RR MEFFER