000
FXUS62 KMFL 220553
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1253 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN LOW, SO OPTED TO LEAVE OUT VCSH.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE SE DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS. AT APF THE
SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW THE WIND
DIRECTION TO BECOME S TO SW INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HRS. /TINGLER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009/

UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE LOSS HEATING OF THE
DAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CWA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR REST OF THE
NIGHT OVER MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL REMOVE THE POP WORDING FOR THE
MAINLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE EVENING UPDATE FOR TONIGHT.

THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS COULD STILL SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
TONIGHT...AS THE LAND BREEZES WILL SET UP OVER THE MAINLAND AND
PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS FOR TONIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO WORKED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SO
THE FOG FORMATION SHOULD BE LESS TONIGHT OVER THE CWA.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR THE INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.

THE NORTHEAST SWELLS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THE
PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH REST OF TONIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE
MARINE ZONES EVENING UPDATE FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS ALONG WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY IN THE EVENING HWO UPDATE.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLAN.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. STARTED WINDS
LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS AND STARTED THE SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE AT THE
EAST TERMINALS ARND 15Z AND A SSW SEA BREEZE AT KAPF ARND 19Z. NO
MENTION OF VCSH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DEVELOPING LOW OVER NW GULF
OF MEX OFF TX/LA COAST WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
MOST ENERGY WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT SHOULD MOVE TO N-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD BECOME
MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH THE FRONT LOOSING STEAM AND
STALLING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER
A WARM JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...ALTHOUGH SW FLOW USUALLY
YIELDS WARMER TEMPS OVER EASTERN AREAS...WL KEEP AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS JUST
FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES SINCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WL
LIMIT SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE DOW
THE PENINSULA TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS
SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING OF A SERIOUS CASE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS
INDICATED BY THE PRECIP/OMEGA FIELD AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOWS ALONG THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. BELIEVE GFS IS OVERDOING IT AND SO WL NOT
GO HIGHER THAN LOW SCT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL GIVE A STRONG ENOUGH
PUSH TO THE FRONT TO FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
FRIDAY. A STRONG SFC HIGH OF MIXED ORIGIN (PACIFIC/ARCTIC) WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTH TO EAST TX WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NW FLOW
ADVECTING, NOT ONLY LOWER TEMPS, BUT ALSO DRIER AIR DOWN THE
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY E/SE THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. A SMALL NE SWELL (2 TO 3 FEET) WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 4 FEET BUT MAY
INCREASE ABOVE THAT THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTH WITH NW WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED BEHIND IT.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER MUCH
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  70  84  69 / 20 30 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  73  82  72 / 20 20 30 20
MIAMI            85  72  84  72 / 20 20 30 20
NAPLES           83  70  83  67 / 20 30 30 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT