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000 FXUS64 KSHV 231134 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 534 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009 .DISCUSSION... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL AND FOGGY START TO THE MORNING COMMUTE. SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL VARY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FOG WILL BE MOST DENSE. LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED BELOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR A CLOUDY SKY FOR MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. WHERE THE SKY WAS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THE FOG MAY BECOME MORE DENSE BY SUNRISE AND CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING AROUND 9 AM. WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWED OUR NEXT TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS IT WILL SEND A SURFACE LOW EAST WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFFECT ZONES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINING ZONES DURING THE DAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP WORDING IN THE ZONES AS SHOWERS. WITH THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WILL END RAIN CHANCES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE PROVIDING COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES. ANOTHER REINFORCING SUPPLY OF COOL AND DRY AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 30S NEAR THANKSGIVING WITH SOME AREAS DIPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE EARLY START TO THE WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF RETURNING AROUND ITS BACK SIDE SETTING UP OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HAVE STAYED NEAR THE GFS AND GFSX MOS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. /06/ && .AVIATION... STARTING OUT THE MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AT THE AREA TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY MVFR/IFR VSBYS BUT CLOSER TO SUNRISE...SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD FALL TO LIFR/VLIFR VSBY CATEGORIES. THIS WILL BE A LAST MINUTE CALL CONCERNING THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. CONCERNING CEILINGS...WILL LIKELY GO WITH PREVAILING LIFR CEILINGS WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AT MLU/ELD TERMINALS AND A MORE RAPID IMPROVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE AT THE E TX TERMINALS. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF OUR E TX TERMINALS BY 24/12Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH LOW CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WILL THUS MAKE THIS MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE THIS MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 71 52 67 41 65 / 0 30 40 10 0 MLU 69 49 69 42 65 / 0 20 40 20 0 DEQ 67 48 64 33 61 / 0 40 30 0 0 TXK 69 51 65 38 63 / 0 30 30 0 0 ELD 70 50 65 40 65 / 0 20 40 20 0 TYR 72 52 65 41 63 / 0 30 30 0 0 GGG 72 51 66 40 64 / 0 30 30 0 0 LFK 74 51 68 40 65 / 0 20 40 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 06/13