000
AXUS74 KEWX 100050
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-240100-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 PM CST MON NOV 9 2009

...ABNORMALLY DRY TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WET SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER...NOVEMBER HAS BEEN A LITTLE
DRIER SO FAR. A RAINFALL EVENT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NOVEMBER 8TH
AND 9TH PROVIDED RAINFALL FROM ONE-TENTH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
AND COASTAL PLAINS RAINFALL OF ONE-HALF OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES
WAS REPORTED. THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAVE RECEIVED THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS.

THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN OCTOBER COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL FROM SEPTEMBER HAS JUST ABOUT WIPED OUT THE SHORT TERM
DROUGHT ISSUES...BUT SOME LONGER TERM DROUGHT EFFECTS CONTINUE.
AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND CREEKS HAVE SHOWN ONLY MINIMAL RISES.
THESE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID NOVEMBER 3RD AND ISSUED
NOVEMBER 5TH...SHOWED THE MAJORITY OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NOW IN (D0)...ABNORMALLY DRY TO
(D2)...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE
RAINFALL THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST. A LARGE PART
OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WAS IN (D1)...MODERATE DROUGHT TO (D3)
EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE COUNTIES REMAINING IN
(D3)...EXTREME DROUGHT STATUS WERE REAL...UVALDE...ZAVALA AND THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KINNEY...MAVERICK COUNTIES AND SOUTHEASTERN
EDWARDS COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER. AS OF NOVEMBER 9TH BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 8
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE...BEXAR...DEWITT...DIMMIT...FRIO...
KARNES...MAVERICK...VAL VERDE...AND ZAVALA COUNTIES. RESIDENTS IN
COUNTIES NOT LISTED SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY JUDGE`S
OFFICE BEFORE DECIDING TO BURN...IN ORDER TO ENSURE THAT THE
COUNTY HAS NOT ENACTED A BURN BAN.

THE NOVEMBER 9TH KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THAT THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAD A KBDI OF 300 TO 600. THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS HAD A KBDI OF 0 TO 300. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE
USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A
NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS
AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX
RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL
AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

IN THE NOVEMBER 3RD TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS
A AND M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS
WERE NOTED. THE AGRICULTURAL SITUATION CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH
RAINS OF 10 OR MORE INCHES DURING SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER. THE RECENT
COOL WEATHER HELPED CONSERVE MOISTURE. PASTURES...RANGES AND SMALL
GRAINS WERE ,MAKING FULL USE OF THE MOISTURE...BUT MORE RAIN WILL
BE NEEDED TO SUSTAIN THE IMPROVED AGRICULTURAL SITUATION THROUGH
THE WINTER. WET FIELDS DELAYED THE FALL HARVEST...BUT THE HARVEST
OF SWEET CORN...CABBAGE...PICKLING CUCUMBERS...GREEN BEANS...AND
PECANS RESUMED. THE PEANUT HARVEST GAINED MOMENTUM.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

AFTER A VERY WET SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER...NOVEMBER HAS STARTED OFF
A LITTLE DRIER. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE COASTAL PLAINS HAVE RECEIVED 15 TO 20 INCHES OF
RAIN SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST. ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM
LESS THAN ONE INCH TO FIVE INCHES SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST. FOR THE
YEAR TO DATE TOTALS...ALL SITES REMAINED SLIGHTLY BELOW TO BELOW
NORMAL DESPITE THE RECENT RAINFALL.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2009 TO MIDNIGHT NOVEMBER 8,2009 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                 2009 RAINFALL   NORMAL TO DATE   DEPARTURE
AUSTIN MABRY         26.61            29.36        -2.75
AUSTIN BERGSTROM     29.56            30.08        -0.52
SAN ANTONIO          27.35            29.21        -1.86
DEL RIO              11.50            17.43        -5.93

SO FAR IN NOVEMBER...DEL RIO RECORDED 0.27 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS
0.11 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.38 OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN 0.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SAN ANTONIO HAS RECORDED 0.67 OF AN INCH OF RAIN SO FAR IN
NOVEMBER. THIS IS 0.16 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.83 OF AN
INCH. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN 1.4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AUSTIN CAMP MABRY HAS RECORDED 0.64 OF AN INCH OF RAIN SO FAR IN
NOVEMBER AND THIS THIS IS 0.19 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.83
OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN 0.6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

AUSTIN BERGSTROM HAS RECORDED 0.78 OF AN INCH OF RAIN SO FAR IN
NOVEMBER. THIS IS 0.13 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.91 OF AN
INCH. THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN 4.1 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A DRIER ONE WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY NOVEMBER 15TH A WETTER PATTERN MAY DEVELOP
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED ON NOVEMBER 9TH AND VALID NOVEMBER 17TH THROUGH NOVEMBER
23RD IS CALLING FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY MADE ON
OCTOBER 15TH IS CALLING FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

RECENT RAINFALL AND THE TREND FOR CONTINUING RAINFALL HAS
HELPED TO LESSEN THE AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS
CONTINUE...WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPROVEMENTS ON RESERVOIRS...
LAKES...RIVERS AND CREEKS. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EVAPORATION RATES WILL BE HELD DOWN AND LEVELS
WILL REMAIN STEADY OR RISE IF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS OBSERVED.
AREA AQUIFERS ARE DOING BETTER AND HAVE RISEN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR NOVEMBER. MOST STOCK TANKS HAVE FILLED OR AT LEAST
NOW HAVE WATER IN THEM.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGE IS IN THE 25 TO 75 PERCENT (NORMAL)
RANGE OR IN THE 76 PERCENT TO 90 PERCENT (ABOVE NORMAL) RANGE FOR
MOST BASINS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE. OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THE STREAM FLOW AVERAGE IS
IN THE 10 TO 24 PERCENT (BELOW NORMAL) RANGE.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF NOVEMBER 9TH...

MOST AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN SEVERAL FEET BELOW
NORMAL POOL ELEVATIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH
THE WET PATTERN SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND NORMAL POOLS.

                NORMAL POOL (FT)     LATEST ELEVATION (FT)
MEDINA LAKE        1064.2                 1016.54
CANYON LAKE         909                    897.73
LAKE TRAVIS         681                    647.82
LAKE BUCHANAN      1020                    994.46
LAKE GEORGETOWN     791                    796.13
LAKE AMISTAD       1117                   1115.00

LAKE GEORGETOWN HAS RISEN ABOVE NORMAL POOL DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE REGION.

LAKE TRAVIS HAS RESPONDED TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAKE
AND UPSTREAM AND HAS RISEN JUST OVER 16 FEET SINCE OCTOBER 1ST.

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS NO LONGER IN MANDATORY
WATER RESTRICTIONS SINCE THE EDWARDS AQUIFER HAS RISEN ABOVE
THE 660 FOOT LEVEL AND HAS REMAINED AT OR ABOVE THE 660 FOOT
LEVEL FOR 30 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME IN 6
MONTHS THAT MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN IN PLACE. YEAR
ROUND WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE NOW IN PLACE AND RESIDENTS
ARE URGED TO USE WATER WISELY.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

THE CITY OF AUSTIN REMAINS UNDER STAGE TWO WATER RESTRICTIONS
IN AUSTIN AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

KERRVILLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO HAS GONE BACK INTO
YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...THE BARTON SPRINGS/EDWARDS AQUIFER
CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS IMPLEMENTED LESS RESTRICTIVE WATER
RESTRICTIONS. CURRENTLY THERE IS A 20 PERCENT REDUCTION IN
PUMPAGE FOR ALL OF ITS WATER USERS.

MANY LOCATIONS NO LONGER HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS IN
PLACE...HOWEVER...ALL LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE
YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOVEMBER 25TH OR SOONER AS
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN AREA CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/EWX

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE NAY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$