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000 AXUS74 KFWD 162258 DGTFWD TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161- 181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333- 337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-160000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 600 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009 ...MULTIPLE HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ALL BUT END CENTRAL TEXAS DROUGHT... -------------------------------------------------------------------- SYNOPSIS... THEY SAY...IN TEXAS...IT TAKES A FLOOD TO END A DROUGHT. THIS HAS CERTAINLY PROVEN TO BE THE CASE IN RECENT YEARS. THE WET SUMMER OF 2004 ENDED A LONG DRY SPELL...AND THE COPIOUS RAINS DURING THE SUMMER OF 2007 ENDED THE MOST INTENSE MULTI-YEAR DROUGHT SINCE THE 1950S. EVEN THE 50S DROUGHT...THE BENCHMARK DROUGHT FOR NORTH TEXAS...WAS ENDED WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS. NEARLY 25 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT GREATER SOUTHWEST AIRPORT (THE NEARBY BUT LONG-GONE PREDECESSOR TO DFW AIRPORT) DURING APRIL AND MAY OF 1957...MORE THAN THE ANNUAL TOTAL FOR THE PREVIOUS YEAR. WHILE NOT AS DRAMATIC AS SOME OF THE FLOODS OF THE PAST...THE PERSISTENT RAIN EVENTS DURING THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS HAVE ERASED LONG-TERM DEFICITS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. IN SOME LOCATIONS...SEPTEMBER PRECIPITATION TOTALS WERE AMONG THE WETTEST ON RECORD. THE DELUGE CONTINUED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER...WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING 6 TO 10 INCHES IN JUST 2 WEEKS. IN CENTRAL TEXAS...THERE WAS WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENT OF 2 TO 4 DROUGHT CATEGORIES IN JUST ONE MONTH. DURING THAT TIME...TEMPLE MADE THE EXTRAORDINARY TRANSITION FROM EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) TO NOT EVEN ABNORMALLY DRY (D0). A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) REMAIN...PRIMARILY ACROSS LEON COUNTY. -------------------------------------------------------------------- SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL CAME TOO LATE FOR RANCHERS WHOSE HERDS HAD ALREADY BEEN TRIMMED DUE TO LIMITED FORAGE AND THE ELEVATED PRICE OF HAY. THERE IS NOW LITTLE NEED FOR SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING WHERE NATURAL FORAGE HAS MADE VAST IMPROVEMENT. NEARLY 100 PERCENT OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TOPSOIL NOW HAS ADEQUATE OR SURPLUS MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH IT IS WET NOW...HARVEST TIME SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED YIELDS FOR CROPS THAT SUFFERED THROUGH A GROWING SEASON WITHOUT ADEQUATE RAINFALL. THE HEALTHY SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD LEND TO A PROMISING WINTER GROWING SEASON...BUT WHEAT IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING AN ASSAULT BY ARMY WORMS. THE CATERPILLAR VERSION OF THE MOTH THRIVES DURING WET AUTUMNS...AND CAN ALSO LAY WASTE TO ENTIRE PASTURES. DAMP FORAGE MAY SUFFER WHERE EXCESSIVE MOISTURE REMAINS. FIRE DANGER THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY OUTDOOR BURN BANS IN EFFECT WITHIN THE NWS FORT WORTH AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. THE RECENT RAINS HAVE DAMPENED THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...AND THE REDUCED FIRE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WINTER. LATE SEASON GROWTH HAS THRIVED ON THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL...AND THIS GREEN VEGETATION WILL REMAIN UNTIL FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SEVERAL WEEKS FROM NOW. AFTER THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON...MUCH OF THE VEGETATION WILL GO DORMANT AND DRY OUT. THIS ABUNDANT LATE-SEASON GROWTH COULD SERVE AS FUEL FOR WILDFIRES THIS COMING WINTER. DURING A DRY SPELL...THIS CURED FINE FUEL CAN BURN READILY...PARTICULARLY WHEN METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE. THE LOW HUMIDITY AND SEASONALLY GUSTY WINDS DURING THE COLD SEASON ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF MAJOR WILDFIRES IN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER...AN ACTIVE FIRE SEASON REQUIRES PERIODS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...AND THE OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. IT IS QUITE UNUSUAL FOR AN EL NINO WINTER TO BE AMONG THE DRIEST WINTERS ON RECORD. AS SUCH...EL NINO WINTERS ARE GENERALLY AMONG THE LEAST ACTIVE FIRE SEASONS. THE LONE EL NINO EVENT AMONG THE LAST FOUR WINTERS (2006-07) WAS THE LEAST TROUBLESOME FIRE SEASON OF THE FOUR. -------------------------------------------------------------------- CLIMATE SUMMARY... MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS HAS SEEN RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE AMASSED TOTALS NEAR 20 INCHES. FOR MANY AREAS...THESE AMOUNTS ARE DOUBLE NORMAL VALUES. FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF NORTH TEXAS...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ON TIME SCALES UP TO 12 MONTHS OR MORE NO LONGER WARRANT EVEN THE ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) DESIGNATION. DURING THE LAST TWO MONTHS...RAINFALL HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS LEON COUNTY. HOWEVER...CALENDAR-YEAR DEFICITS ARE STILL NEAR 10 INCHES. WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION LIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS...THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK PORTENDS FURTHER IMPROVEMENT...ELIMINATING THE REMAINING MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) AREAS BY THE END OF THE YEAR. -------------------------------------------------------------------- PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) OUTLOOKS FOR THE REMAINDER OF OCTOBER MAINTAIN A WET SIGNAL FOR MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS... EXPANDING INTO NORTH TEXAS BY NOVEMBER. THIS WET PROGNOSIS INTENSIFIES FURTHER IN THE NEWLY RELEASED WINTER OUTLOOK...STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE BURGEONING EL NINO. THE STRONG WET SIGNAL EXCEEDS 50 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS...MEANING THAT FALLING WITHIN THE WETTEST THIRD OF HISTORICAL DATA IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. EL NINO CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WINTER. DURING EL NINO EPISODES...COLD-SEASON CORRELATIONS FAVOR AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE IMPACT IS GREATER IN SOUTH TEXAS...WHERE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT REMAINS...NORTH TEXAS PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE ALSO ENHANCED DURING EL NINO EVENTS. -------------------------------------------------------------------- HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... IN GENERAL...NORTH TEXAS RESERVOIRS ARE HEALTHY...AND WATER SUPPLIES ARE ADEQUATE TO HANDLE DEMAND. NEARLY EVERY LAKE IN THE RED AND TRINITY RIVER BASINS IS CURRENTLY IN ITS FLOOD POOL. LAKE BRIDGEPORT (TRINITY) REMAINS AN OUTLIER...AT 68 PERCENT CONSERVATION. THE BRAZOS BASIN...WHICH HAD TAKEN THE BRUNT OF THE DROUGHT...HAS MADE REMARKABLE IMPROVEMENT. MOST OF THE RESERVOIRS ARE AT LEAST 90 PERCENT CONSERVATION...WITH SOME INTO THEIR FLOOD POOLS. HOWEVER... LAKE PROCTOR REMAINS LOW AT 43 PERCENT...AND THE FLOOD CONTROL LAKE OF WHITNEY IS ONLY UP TO 24 PERCENT OF CONSERVATION POOL. -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ABOUT THE 2008-2009 DROUGHT. A DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL NEXT BE ISSUED WHEN SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) RETURNS TO THE NWS FORT WORTH AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. -------------------------------------------------------------------- && -------------------------------------------------------------------- RELATED WEB SITES... NWS FORT WORTH DROUGHT PAGE - WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/?N=DROUGHT NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM - DROUGHT.GOV CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER - WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER - DROUGHT.UNL.EDU U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR - DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER - DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU -------------------------------------------------------------------- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FACILITATES CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION AMONG NUMEROUS AGENCIES...ACADEMIA...AND OTHER LOCAL INTERESTS. THE EXPERTISE OF ITS MEMBERS HAS BEEN INVALUABLE IN DEVELOPING DROUGHT PRODUCTS AND SERVICES FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS. THE DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER (MAINTAINED BY THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER) HAS ALLOWED VARIOUS IMPACTS TO BE COMPILED WITHIN ONE CLEARING HOUSE. THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE AGRICULTURAL ISSUES... HYDROLOGIC DEFICITS...FIRE DANGER...AND OTHER SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES. A SUMMARY OF THE SUBMITTED IMPACTS IS INCLUDED IN EACH DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND THE TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE PROVIDE ROUTINE ASSESSMENTS OF CROP AND PASTURE CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE (NASS)...PART OF THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA). THE PERIODIC STATEWIDE SUMMARIES THAT RESULT ARE USED AS A PRIMARY SOURCE FOR THE AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS SECTION. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE (TFS) CONTINUALLY MONITORS VEGETATION CONDITIONS AND WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. THE STATE AGENCY ALSO MAINTAINS A CURRENT LIST OF COUNTYWIDE BURN BANS. OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE SUMMARIZED FROM A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS CREATED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC). CPC IS A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) ENTITY WITHIN THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION (NCEP). -------------------------------------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON OUR DROUGHT PRODUCTS AND SERVICES...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE 3401 NORTHERN CROSS BLVD. FORT WORTH, TX 76137 PHONE: (817) 429-2631 E-MAIL: SR-FWD.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV -------------------------------------------------------------------- $$ HUCKABY/25