000
AGUS74 KFWR 221635
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1034 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

                VALID NOVEMBER 22 THROUGH NOVEMBER 27

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A weak upper level trough is moving through the central United
States today, but without Gulf moisture available, the system will
remain dry over the WGRFC area.

However, a developing closed low in the Central Plains is expected
to establish conditions favorable for drawing moisture from the
Gulf of Mexico into south and possibly southeastern Texas by Tuesday
morning.  With this moisture in place, rainshowers may develop
midday continuing until late evening or early Wednesday morning.
This disturbance is then expected to move rapidly into the Gulf with
storms exiting the WGRFC area by Wednesday.

No other significant precipitation events are anticipated in Texas
through the remainder of the forecast period.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches of
rain may occur in south Texas hugging the coast northward to
Matagorda Bay. Lesser amounts of precipitation may occur further
inland from Del Rio in south Texas along the Rio Grande through the
hill country northeast through Waco and then through the border near
Paris, Texas, including most of east Texas. Locally heavier amounts
of rain can be anticipated offshore.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

The most recent rainfall totals have generated some runoff in south
Texas, across southeast Texas and the Texas Gulf coast with
continued significant flooding in the lower portions of the coastal
watersheds.  The additional rainfall amounts for this forecast
period are not expected to impact those areas currently in flood.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Sandies Creek near Westhoff (WHOT2) has finally crested near 25 feet
and will drop below major flood criteria this afternoon. A minor
wave has developed on the mainstem and is past Gonzales (GNLT2) and
has combined with the flood wave on Sandies Creek.  The Guadalupe
River at Cuero has risen above flood stage but is expected to crest
well below moderate flood levels.  However, this wave will bring the
Guadalupe River at Victoria (VICT2) into moderate flood conditions
within the next day or two and Bloomington (DUPT2), already in
moderate flood conditions, is likely to crest near its major flood
level sometime later this week.  Coleto Creek Reservoir (CKDT2),
which has finally returned to conservation pool, so is now
considered full.  The reservoir is releasing the extra water still
entering the lake, which is adding to the flows downstream at
Bloomington.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall over the Lavaca-Navidad basin generated new
rises along the river system.  Higher criteria, non-flood, flows are
occurring at Morales (MRAT2) and Strane Park (LSNT2) on the Navidad
River.  West Mustang Creek near Ganado (GNDT2) and the Tres Palacios
River at Midfield (MTPT2) have crested and are now falling. The
Lavaca River near Edna has nosed over flood stage and should crest
overnight.  Other rises are expected to remain below forecast
criteria levels.

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Trinity River at Dallas (DALT2) has fallen below flood stage and
will continue to fall.  Further downstream, in the middle section of
the Trinity River, the flood wave that moved through Dallas will
bring the Trinity River at Trinidad (TDDT2) above its action stage.
Both Cedar Creek Reservoir (TRNT2) and Richland Chambers (FFLT2)
have increased their outflows to pass the additional water entering
the lakes due to recent rainfall.  Higher than normal flood
conditions continue on the lower Trinity River at Liberty (LBYT2).
Further downstream, minor flood conditions are occurring at Moss
Bluff (MBFT2).  The Trinity River is receding at both locations.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Lake Tawakoni continues to spill enough water into the Sabine River
that when combined with local flow, the Sabine River near Mineola
will return to flood conditions later this week. At the other end of
the river, minor flooding will persist throughout the forecast
period at the Sabine River near Deweyville (DWYT2).

...Nueces Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Flooding continues on Mission River (REFT2) and Copano Creek (RCCT2)
both near Refugio.  The rivers should start receding in a few days.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Cibolo Creek near Falls City (FCTT2) continues to recover from the
recent flood event as the water moves into the mainstem of the San
Antonio River.  A minor wave has been generated on the mainstem of
the San Antonio above Cibolo Creek and, when combined with the
Cibolo Creek flow, the mainsteam at Goliad (GLIT2) will crest above
flood stage in a couple of days. .

...Lower Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Locally heavy rainfall across the Lower Brazos has produced some
rises across the basin and its tributaries.  Davidson Creek at Lyons
(LYNT2) has crested just above criteria and should begin falling
later today.  The Brazos River at Bryan has risen above its action
stage and will continue to rise for another day or so before it
begins to fall.

...Neches Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Neches River near Diboll (DIBT2) has finally dropped below flood
stage this morning and continues to fall.  All other points are
within the streambanks.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other rivers in the WGRFC area are at base flow.  No rises are
expected during the next few days since precipitation forecasted for
the next few days is expected to remain light in nature.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://www.weather.gov/rivers_tab.php

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcfop

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml

CAZIER


$$