000
FLUS42 KTAE 210811
HWOTAE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-220815-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
311 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009 /211 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LOCAL AREA COMING
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...5 PERCENT
WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT...OF DAMAGING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND A 2 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TORNADO WITHIN
25 MILES OF A POINT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT FAVOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...OR
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. COUNTERING THIS FAVORABLE FACTOR WILL BE
LIMITED INSTABILITY...AS IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL THAT THE
WARM...MOISTURE RICH AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INLAND
TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD CAUSE SMALL SCALE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND THE RAIN
TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK DUE TO VARYING SOLUTIONS FROM THE COMPUTER MODELS USED TO
FORECAST THE WEATHER. ONE MODEL FORECASTS FAIR AND MILD WEATHER
WHILE THE OTHER FORECASTS A RAIN EVENT BY MID WEEK. EVEN IF THE
RAINY SOLUTION IS CORRECT...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SPOTTERS ARE
ASKED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...IN
CASE A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DOES MATERIALIZE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

$$

FOURNIER