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000 FXUS62 KMLB 230911 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 410 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009 ...PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK THEN TURNING DRIER AND MUCH COOLER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND... .DISCUSSION... TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT CREATING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. FAIRLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISO-SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 30% FROM THE ORLANDO AREA SOUTHWARD WHERE GREATEST MOISTURE WILL EXIST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER NORTH OVER N LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO EXIST OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR BUT IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR AND ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING TODAY COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES HOWEVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH...BUT THEN SHOULD SEE ALL PRECIP END BY MIDNIGHT. ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SFC WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE FOR FAVORABLE FOG FORMATION CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG IN THE ZONES FOR NOW. TUE-WED...WEAK FRONT DRAPED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD BY LATE TUE. THIS OCCURRING AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT OVER GULF AND FLOW ALOFT BACKS A LITTLE MORE SSW/INCREASES AS TROF DEEPENS INTO GULF. THIS ALLOWS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER CARIB TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE STATE. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS FOR THESE PERIODS WITH VALUES TRENDING HIGHER ON WED. MAY NEED TO ADD A THUNDER MENTION IN SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR BOUNDARY TUE AFTN IF LATER RUNS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME MARG INSTABILITY. ON WED...THE MID LEVEL JETSTREAK/VORT ENERGY LOOK A LITTLE STRONGER AND THUNDER MENTION MAY BE NEEDED ALL AREAS IF THIS TREND HOLDS THROUGH LATER RUNS. WED NITE-THANKSGIVING...SURFACE LOW ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA LATE WED/THURS MORNING. THE LOW WILL LIFT NE OVER ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY THANKSGIVING WITH STRONG PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR SPREADING DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND IT. SHOWED A N-S POP STRIATION THURS...WITH HIGHER CHANCES EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAXES ON THANKSGIVING RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTH. FRI-SUN...DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S NORTH-LOWER 70S SOUTH FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND MAYBE A FEW UPPER 30S COOLER NORTHERN INTERIOR BY SAT MORN. THE COOL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTER NOT MOVING OFFSHORE OVER ATLANTIC UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL MAKE FOR IFR/MVFR CONDS...ESPECIALLY OVER N TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD THEN SEE PREDOMINATE VFR CONDS BY MID/LATE MORNING. ISO-SCT SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WHICH COULD CREATE TEMPO MVFR CONDS. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THOUGH FOR NOW AS COVERAGE LOOKS LOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL ALSO EXIST BUT DUE TO THE LOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. && .MARINE...WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WEAK SFC FRONT STALLS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. SEAS WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL DECLINE WITH E/NE SWELLS KEEPING SEAS UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE TODAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TO AOB 4 FT TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM BREVARD COUNTY SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ANY STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT. TUE-FRI...WINDS AOB 10KT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING OVER WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THURS WITH PASSAGE OF SURFACE LOW CENTER TO THE SOUTH FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE LATE THURS INTO FRI....AND HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY BY LATE THURS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 78 64 76 65 / 20 10 30 30 MCO 80 64 81 65 / 30 20 30 30 MLB 80 64 80 68 / 30 20 30 30 VRB 80 63 82 69 / 30 20 30 30 LEE 80 62 77 64 / 20 10 30 30 SFB 80 63 80 64 / 30 10 30 30 ORL 80 65 81 65 / 30 20 30 30 FPR 80 64 82 68 / 30 20 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH LONG TERM....GLITTO