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000 FXUS64 KMOB 231048 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 445 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA WILL DRIFT EAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION ANY MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCE FOR TODAY... BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MORNING COMMUTERS HAVE TO SWIPE WINDSHIELD WIPERS OCCASIONALLY IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS TODAY AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 12/DS && .LONG TERM...BY 12Z TUE SFC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BEGINS TO SHIFT N`WARD IN RESPONSE TO NEXT LONG WAVE TROF/CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON TUE DUE TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWFA BY 18Z WED WITH CHANCE POPS MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING. AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES MORE NORTHWARD ON WED MODEL GUIDANCE PREFERABLY THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST DIGGING MOSTLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY GIVING WAY TO MUCH DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S BOTH FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST ON FRI. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE CURRENT 00Z MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS. /32 && .AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)...LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUD DECK PRODUCING CIGS AROUND 400 FEET. THE LOW CIG WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT POSSIBLY WILL RETURN TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 12/DS && .MARINE...WEAKENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE TODAY AND TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE OFFSHORE WINDS...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS...DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART OF THE WEEK. 12/DS && .FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE MUCH LOWER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BY MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME HUMIDITIES LEVELS LOOK TO BE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS LATER IN THE WEEK BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS WE NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. /32 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 68 48 72 48 / 10 05 10 05 PENSACOLA 67 51 69 51 / 10 05 10 10 DESTIN 67 54 67 54 / 10 05 10 10 EVERGREEN 64 44 70 42 / 10 05 10 10 WAYNESBORO 65 42 72 43 / 05 05 05 05 CAMDEN 62 44 71 45 / 10 10 10 05 CRESTVIEW 69 46 71 44 / 10 05 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$