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112 FXUS64 KSJT 220438 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1137 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ Previous terminals look good, with VFR conditions dominating for the next 24 hours. A few light showers may move over the southern terminals during the next several hours. However, expect no impact to flight weather. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/ UPDATE... Showers are continuing across much of West Central Texas south of the Interstate 20 corridor. Thus, updated PoP and weather grids for that area to indicate isolated showers for the remainder of tonight. Rainfall accumulations should be very little if any. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. Light and variable surface winds overnight, around 6 knots, will become south to southeast by 18Z tomorrow and increase to around 10 knots. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Wednesday) An upper trough is over the southern Rockies this afternoon, with a lead disturbance lifting north across West Texas. The trough axis will gradually shift east into West Texas on Wednesday. Based on the track of the system and moisture fields, still expecting the better rain chances to remain west of our area with this system. Carrying slight chance PoPs tonight west of a Sterling City to Ozona line, and 20-30 PoPs Wednesday across roughly the western half of our area. Abilene and San Angelo will be near the eastern edge of where we are carrying low PoPs Wednesday. Little temperature change is expected with the overnight lows and afternoon highs through Wednesday. Skies will be mostly cloudy across the western part of our area, and partly cloudy to the east. 19 LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Tuesday) A shortwave trough will be moving across the northern/central Plains Wednesday night into Thursday, with a trailing trough axis extending SSW into the Southern Plains. Synoptic scale ascent associated with this trough axis will exist over the area early in the period, but lift will wane by Thursday morning as the trough axis moves east. PoPs were kept in the 20-30% range across the western and central portions of the CWA Wednesday night, but trimmed back slightly on Thursday, removing rain chances from extreme northwest areas. It seems likely that Thursday rain chances may need to be trimmed further if the current trends continue. An upper-level ridge will overspread the region in the wake of the departing trough, providing tranquil weather conditions through the weekend. Temperatures will follow a warming trend Friday through Sunday as mid-level heights climb (500 mb heights near 591 dam). The ridge will be transient, as a deep trough digs over the western CONUS during the latter half of the weekend. Southerly winds will persist through early next week, ramping up to 10-20 mph on Sunday as southwesterly flow aloft increases ahead of the aforementioned trough. As mid-level southwesterly flow moves across the Mexican Plateau, we`ll see mid-level temps warm, causing the elevated mixed layer (EML) to overspread the area. This will result in a building thermal ridge over West TX Sunday and Monday. Forecast high temperatures for this time are generally in the mid 80s, but if we see southwesterly low-level flow develop, compressional heating via downslope winds will likely push temps to near or slightly above 90 degrees. The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are all in pretty good agreement regarding the synoptic pattern by Monday morning, depicting the mid/upper- level ridge over the southeast CONUS and a deep trough over the central and western states. As this trough moves east, we can expect an eventual cold front in West Central TX. Model consensus currently points to a Monday night frontal passage, with cooler temperatures expected on Tuesday. Rain chances are a big question mark for now. Large scale ascent will be on the increase downstream of this trough, but the quality of moisture return is uncertain and the cap associated with the EML will need to break in order for showers and thunderstorms to develop. The ECMWF parameterization does develop some precipitation across the CWA, but the GFS keeps the forecast dry for our neck of the woods, with QPF confined to our east. Given the low confidence in this scenario, the precip chances were left out of the forecast for now. Johnson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 56 79 59 81 59 / 10 10 20 20 5 San Angelo 55 81 57 81 56 / 20 20 20 20 5 Junction 55 82 57 81 55 / 20 5 10 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ Aviation/Update: Huber