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258
FXUS64 KSJT 181706 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1106 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.UPDATE...
The forecast was updated to remove the mention of morning fog
from the forecast. Also tweaked temps, dewpoints and sky cover
to reflect current trends. Updated zones sent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

LIFR/IFR Ceilings and visibilities will lift this morning. Skies
have already cleared at KABI, but there remains the potential for
light fog until sunrise. IFR CIGS return this evening as low
level moisture returns behind a weak cold front. Light showers
are possible toward the end of the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Patchy areas of dense fog had developed this morning, especially
south and east of an Ozona to Brownwood line. The low clouds and
fog, however, will clear through mid morning as a weak surface
trough moves through, bringing drier southwesterly winds. High
cloudiness will be increasing in the afternoon with approach of an
upper trough from the west.

A weak cold front will move through the region this afternoon.
Only areas north of I-20 however will see any cold advection. An
upper trough in Baja California this morning will bring weak lift
over the cold front, mainly towards and after midnight. Mid level
lapse rates increase to 7-7.5 degrees/KFT, so there could be an
isolated thunderstorm where moisture is deepest. This area will be
mainly south and east of the Concho Valley.

04

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

By Friday morning, the upper level trough axis is expected to
still west of the CWA, so we will likely still have scattered
showers in the area Friday morning before the trough axis move
through the area. So, have kept PoPs going for the entire area
Friday morning, with most of the activity moving out by Friday
afternoon, although there may be some very light spotty showers
around the area Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be 10 to 20
degrees cooler Friday as additional cooler air slides into the
area from the northeast, and lingering clouds/rain limit heating.

The pattern will remain rather progressive following Friday with
another weak upper level trough crossing the area Saturday night
into Sunday. However, this trough is not expected to result in any
precipitation, and will be followed by a Pacific cold front,
without any significant cooling. A stronger system will move into
the north central plains area Monday, resulting in a broad
deepening trough over the central U. S., and send a more
substantial, but dry, cold front through our area Monday night.
So, after steadily warming temperatures through Monday, Tuesday
will cool back down to near normal for highs.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  42  48  35  55 /   5  40  30   5   5
San Angelo  66  45  54  35  59 /   5  40  30   5   5
Junction  68  48  56  38  60 /  10  70  50   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






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