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974 FXUS64 KSJT 230349 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 949 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014 .UPDATE... Updated to add a mention of a rain/snow mix to portions of the western Big Country and western Concho Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Radars continue to show a large band of precipitation moving across the Panhandle and South Plains into the Big Country north of I-20 this evening. Definitely as a snow look to some of it already, although temperatures are way too warm to support it. However, colder air filtering in behind the front will combine with some wet bulbing to allow temperatures to drop by sunrise. Soundings suggest that the precipitation will almost assuredly be all snow above the surface across much of the area, and its just a matter of getting temperatures in the lowest 500 to 1000 feet cold enough to allow some of the snow to reach the ground. That still looks pretty tough across most of the area, but the area from Sweetwater to Sterling City will see the chance. Elevations in those areas are 500 feet or so higher than the surrounding areas, and that may make all the difference. Have introduce a rain/snow mix to the forecast for those areas by morning. Ground temperatures are very warm, and surface temperatures likely to stay above freezing so don`t anticipate any real issues from whatever snow does fall. If temperatures cool even a little more than anticiapted, may have to bring a mention of a rain/snow mix into Abilene and San Angelo as well. Will continue to monitor. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Scattered showers and post frontal MVFR stratus will be developing late tonight and Tuesday morning over West Central Texas. There is a chance for IFR ceilings, particularly at KABI Tuesday morning, but models vary on the potential, so will keep as MVFR at this issuance. Most of the showers will be move east in the early afternoon, with VFR condition returning mid to late afternoon. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Tuesday) An active weather pattern is in store for the next 24 hours. A cold front is moving through the area today, and will be through all of West Central Texas by this evening. An upper level trough currently across the Plains will strengthen and send a short wave trough across West Central Texas late this evening/early Tuesday morning. This is indicated by most of the high resolution models, with showers developing across the Big Country late this evening, then moving across at least the northern two thirds of the area during the early morning hours. The likely PoPs were expanded south into the northern Concho Valley and Heartland, with chance PoPs down to the Interstate 10 corridor. Temperatures overnight will drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s across all of West Central Texas. As the midnight shift mentioned in the previous discussion, temperatures from the surface to about 2500 or 3000 feet will be above freezing, so mainly rain is expected. A brief change over to a mix of rain/snow will be possible across parts of the Concho Valley/Big Country, but confidence remains low, so all rain was continued in the forecast. Even if we did see a few snow flakes, no accumulation is expected. Our next chance of precipitation will be Tuesday morning, as the main upper level trough axis swings across the region. High resolution models continue to indicate an area of light to moderate rainfall developing across the Big Country and then swinging across the Concho Valley and Heartland Tuesday morning. Rain chances will decrease from northwest to southeast during the afternoon, with most precipitation east of the area by sunset. Rainfall accumulations through the next 24 hours will likely be less than one quarter inch, with isolated amounts of up to one half inch possible. Daniels LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Monday) As the trough continues to migrate east across the CONUS, northerly winds will persist and keep West Central Texas near normal Wednesday. Expect afternoon highs to be in the low 50s with overnight lows near freezing. Expect Christmas Day to be warm and breezy as moderate ridging will quickly give way to lee cyclogenesis. This will induce southwest winds causing warmer, drier air, leading to afternoon high temperatures mainly in the 60s. Winds are expected to reach speeds between 20-25 mph in response to a strengthening surface level pressure gradient. Forecast models have slowed the trough and, consequently, the passage of the cold front by about a day. The EC model brings the northerly wind shift and cold air advection across the area late Friday evening/Saturday morning. Expect much cooler temperatures on Saturday with highs mainly in the 40s and 50s with overnight lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. The EC has decent precipitation across portions of West Central Texas and moisture return flow looks adequate for precipitation. Thus, added slight chance pops on Saturday to accompany the passage of the cold front. There is an outside chance for some frozen precipitation across the Big Country, however, kept liquid precip only at this time. Finally, early next week some isentropic lift will bring a slight chance of precipitation, mainly across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland. Temperatures are expected to be above seasonal normal and therefore no frozen precipitation is anticipated. JMD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 37 48 33 50 32 / 70 50 0 0 0 San Angelo 39 49 33 52 30 / 50 50 5 0 0 Junction 41 51 32 54 28 / 20 40 5 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07