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413
FXUS64 KSJT 162046
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
345 PM CDT Tue SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

As of 3 PM...isolated to scattered showers have developed across
the area in an uncapped and weakly unstable airmass. Most of this
activity will diminish with the loss of heating after sunset this
evening. Tropical moisture will remain in place across West Texas
tonight through Wednesday as the remnants of Odile continue to
spread east across the area. Much like the past couple of nights,
a few showers will be possible during the overnight period and will
keep the inherited slight POPs intact.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Wednesday
as embedded disturbances from the remnants of Odile move across the
area. Precipitable water values will remain high (around 2 inches)
and steering flow rather weak, so locally heavy rainfall will be a
concern with the strongest convection. Low temperatures tonight will
be around 70 degrees, with highs on Wednesday in the mid and upper
80s

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night into Tuesday)


Remnants of Odile are expected to move northeast into the Texas
Panhandle Friday and Oklahoma Friday night/Saturday. Both the GFS
and EC develop several bands of showers eastward into West
Central Texas during this period. With a tropical atmosphere in
place and precipitable water amounts approaching 2 inches,
potential exists for locally heavy rainfall in bands that
develop, particularly during afternoon hours. Low level focus for
convection will be lacking, but a few areas could pick up 1 to 3
inches in slow moving storms.

A cold front moves through Sunday. Again, locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will be possible in tropical like
atmosphere. Computers solutions have slowed down front as it moves
into West Central Texas, with both the GFS and EC models indicating
rainfall continuing into Monday and Tuesday next week. Will not put
in rain chances in for Monday and Tuesday, but later shifts will
need to reevaluate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  86  69  83  69 /  30  40  50  50  40
San Angelo  70  86  71  86  71 /  20  40  50  50  30
Junction  72  85  72  86  72 /  30  40  50  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/04








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