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261
FXUS64 KSJT 021128
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
627 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across most West Central Texas
terminals through the period. However, we are seeing the expected
MVFR stratus developing on low cloud imagery, although remaining
pretty patchy at this point. Suspect that it will expand a little
more through sunrise, and then quickly dissipate. Even at those
locations it does effect, it will be a move in and out quickly
type of feature. Otherwise, gusty south winds through daylight
hours with just a scattered afternoon cu field developing.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another mild night ongoing across West Central Texas, with south
winds remaining strong enough to keep temperatures from dropping
very much. Readings still right around 80 degrees at 3 AM (08Z).
Models do indicate that some patchy low cloudiness will develop by
sunrise and spread northward into the area, with low cloud satellite
imagery showing some of this starting to develop across portions of
Central Texas.

Another hot day in store for the area, with the upper level ridge of
high pressure in control. The 00Z NAM showed some convection across
West Central Texas this afternoon, but the GFS is dry. Both the TTU
WRF and the HRRR both show a similar pattern, scattered sea breeze
activity pushing well inland today, but dissipating at sunset across
Central Texas. Thus, will not insert PoPs into the forecast.
After readings above the 100 degree mark at San Angelo and
Abilene, models indicate a slight cooling at 850MB today as a
little cooler and more moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico
slides into the area. Will keep afternoon highs below the 100
degree mark, but still a degree or two above guidance. Mild again
tonight as south winds keep temperatures from dropping very
quickly. Again, stayed just a little above guidance, as it has
been too cool for the last several days.

LONG TERM...

Surface temperatures fall 2 to 3 degrees F Wednesday as 850 MB
temperatures fall another 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. Tropical Storm
Dolly in the Bay of Campeche is expected to move into Mexico
early Wednesday, and may send weak disturbances/moisture
northward to affect the I-10 corridor Thursday and Friday. This
is indicated mainly by the EC model, as the GFS model is dry and
the NAM model nearly so. Will keep rain chances out of forecast
for this time period, given the uncertainty and limited agreement
in the models.

For Saturday night into Sunday, however, both the GFS and EC
modes are still indicating a weak cold front to bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast already has rain
chances in for this time period, and will maintain them.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  76  96  74  95 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  98  75  95  74  94 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  95  77  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07








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