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FXUS64 KSJT 281733
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1132 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions through much of the TAF forecast period.
Stratus will return Saturday morning along the I-10 corridor and
have MVFR CIGS at the KJCT and KSOA terminals after 12Z. The
winds will be south this afternoon with gusts near 30 knots,
decreasing after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Low clouds have headed quickly northward this morning, already
reaching KSOA and KJCT by 11Z. Will keep MVFR/IFR ceilings for
those locations for the next few hours. May see brief intrusion of
these clouds as far north as KSJT...but should disappear quickly
after sunrise. Decided to go with a SCT layer for now in San
Angelo. Otherwise...expect winds to pick up out of the south at
10-20 kt by afternoon...decreasing after sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest water vapor and analysis shows a weak ridge over the
southwestern US with a trough along the east coast. Dry west to
northwest flow continues across most of Texas.  At the surface, a
developing lee trough over far west Texas and New Mexico is bringing
increasing southerly winds and increasing low level moisture into
west central Texas.

A few low clouds have developed early this morning just south of the
forecast area, and these clouds may make it to the Interstate 10
corridor by morning.  Expect the clouds to burn off rather quickly
this morning, with temperatures warming into the 70s area wide. A
tightening surface pressure gradient will result in breezy south
winds by the afternoon.

Expect another mild night tonight with lows in the 40s as southerly
low level flow continues. We may see a few low clouds briefly enter
southern counties again by morning, but clouds should quickly
dissipate.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)

Moderate to brisk south and southwest winds will prevail from
Saturday through Sunday night as a weak ridge of high pressure aloft
moves east across the area. This will result in dry weather with mild
high temperatures in the 70`s. Lows will be in the mid 40`s across
north and west counties and near 50 degrees across southeast
counties.

A vigorous but dry cold front will move south rapidly through the
forecast area early on Monday. Models are in excellent agreement on
the time of arrival of the front. By sunrise Monday brisk 15 to 20
mph north winds with higher gusts will dominate most or all of the
forecast area. These north winds will bring a brief blast of cold
air with highs Monday only reaching into the low 40`s across
northern counties and the Big Country, near 50 degrees across
central counties and the Concho Valley, and the lower 50s across
Crockett, Sutton, Kimble and Mason counties. Tuesday morning lows
will be at or below freezing across the forecast area behind the
cold front as winds rapidly weaken and skies remain mostly clear.
Coldest temperatures in the mid to upper 20`s are expected across
Haskell, Throckmorton, and Fisher counties.

This dry, cool air will be brief as highs are expected to warm
into the upper 50`s and 60`s Wednesday through Friday with low
temperatures warming from the mid 40`s on Wednesday into the low
50`s on Friday, this caused by warm and moist southerly surface
winds surging back across the forecast area bringing warmer weather
and a slight chance for rain south of a line from northern San Saba
county to southern Crockett County.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  48  73  50  72 /   0   0   5   0   0
San Angelo  73  46  77  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  70  44  74  51  72 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








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