Page 2 of WeatherReady

There are several ways to get this information to the NWS in Shreveport. One option is to go to the NWS Shreveport website and use the Storm Report form at www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/svrwxreports.htm.

The information that you enter will automatically alarm in our operations room as a real time report. Another option is to contact your local EMA director or local law enforcement who can relay the information to the NWS. If you have an amateur radio license you can contact the NWS through our responders who monitor the ham radio station at the NWS office anytime there is severe weather.

2007 Hurricane Season Outlook

The 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season came and went without much fanfare, at least when compared to the 2005 season, a record for the Atlantic Basin. There continues to be much debate on why last year's season was so quiet compared to the 2005 season. Experts are accepting the fact that El Nino, a large scale ocean-atmospheric phenomenon linked to a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean, may have led to unusual cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin. This combined with an unusual amount of shear across the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and across the Caribbean Sea likely resulted in the below normal year in 2006.

With the El Nino pattern still ongoing, does this mean that the 2007 season should be below normal as well? On December 8th, Dr. William Gray, leader of the Colorado State University Forecasting Team, announced that the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to be an above normal season. He and his team bases this outlook on the expected weakening of the present El Nino atmospheric cycle which in turn should result in less shear across the Atlantic Basin and increased warming of sea surface temperatures across the basin as well.

The team's first extended-range forecast for the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season predicts 14 named storms during the season which officially begins on June 1st and continues through November 30th. Of those 14 names storms, the team predicts that seven will reach hurricane status with three of the seven expected to become major hurricanes of Category 3 intensity (sustained 111 mph winds) or higher. The team predicts that there is a 64 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coastline in 2007 while the climatological average of a major hurricane impacting the U.S. coast is around 52 percent.

Of the last 7 so-called El Nino years, of which 2006 was considered to be, the year following the El Nino year almost always experienced an active Atlantic Hurricane Season, thus the reasoning behind the team's forecast. Below is a list of names for the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season: