(Sept. 26, 2012) - A weaker than expected El Niño could mean drought conditions are likely to persist for the Southern Great Plains at least through the end of the year. If so, that is bad news for Oklahoma, New Mexico and Texas where extensive drought has cost billions of dollars in losses and millions of acres lost to wildfires since fall of 2010.
"El Niño is one of the main factors that influences winter precipitation in the Southern Great Plains," said David Brown, regional director, NOAA Climate Service, Southern Region. "The somewhat erratic development of the current El Niño event means the forecast for this winter could be very challenging."
Typically, sea surface temperatures rise in the equatorial Pacific during a normal or strong El Niño year. And typically, that brings increased precipitation to the Southern Great Plains. According to the National Climate Data Center, there has only been a slight rise so far this year -- leaving us with a questionable outlook.
Currently, nine-tenths of Oklahoma remains in extreme drought; a fifth of Texas is in extreme drought; and, portions of New Mexico range from moderate, to severe to extreme. More than half a million acres in Oklahoma and New Mexico have burned since the beginning of the year and many west Texas reservoirs are now well below capacity, with some near empty.
While some relief is anticipated for portions of southeast Texas and eastern Oklahoma; severe, extreme and even exceptional drought conditions for most of the region are expected to persist.
From the beginning in September 2010 until September of this year, New Mexico has experienced the hottest and driest period on record. During that same period, Texas has been the hottest and fifth driest and Oklahoma the hottest and ninth driest on record. Temperature and precipitation records date back to 1895.
For more information on the climate outlook, visit: Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook.
