National Weather Service River Forecast Center

...SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, CENTRAL TEXAS, AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

An upper level disturbance along with a surface cold front is forecast to move across Texas Thursday and Friday, bringing the chance for precipitation. Precipitation will begin to end during the day Friday as drier air filters in behind this system.

Another storm system is expected to begin developing over the California coast on Saturday. Sunday, this system is expected to move eastward and into the WGRFC area. Showers and mountain snow showers are possible over the WGRFC area.

Monday, another storm system is expected to move onto the northern California coast. This system is forecast to mover eastward toward the WGRFC area on Tuesday.

We will continue to monitor and make updates accordingly.

For Today into Friday morning, three areas of Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) with amounts of 0.25 inch are located over deep south Texas, central Texas, and north central Texas. Light amounts of MAP is also forecast over the remaining WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, two areas of MAP with amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast over southeast Texas and northeast Texas. Light amounts of MAP are also forecast over the remainder of the eastern half of Texas.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, light amounts of MAP are possible over deep south Texas, west Texas, southeastern New Mexico, northern New Mexico, and southern Colorado.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 1 inch are forecast over east Texas into Louisiana. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are also forecast over central Texas, east Texas, and southern Colorado. Light amounts of MAP are also forecast over the remainder of the WGRFC area.

Extreme to exceptional drought conditions impact approximately 60% of Texas, and in New Mexico, extreme or exceptional drought conditions covered about 24% of the state. Soils are saturated across the eastern half of Texas from recent rainfall. Soils across South Texas remain fairly dry. Future rainfall should be confined to those areas that have missed out on recent rainfall. Little to no runoff is expected. Otherwise, most areas can still use and need more beneficial rainfall.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Power generation releases continue at Lake Amistad, producing higher than normal flows down the mainstem Rio Grande River to Falcon Lake. The river will remain out of banks in the vicinity of Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) as long as these releases continue; these releases will continue until further notice.

...Lower Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Brazos River near Richmond (RMOT2) will continue to fall and will return within banks Thursday.

...Neches Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher criteria (but below flood stage) flows will continue for the tributaries downstream of Steinhagen. Village creek reach near Kountze (KOUT2) and Pine Island Bayou near Sour Lake (SOLT2) will slowly recede.

...Sabine Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Sabine River at at Deweyville (DWYT2) will slowly recede and will fall below criteria this weekend. No additional rises are expected from the rainfall forecast for the period.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most WGRFC rivers are returning to near normal/baseflow conditions. Future rainfall could produce rises over areas that have recently received significant precipitation. Significant mainstem river flooding is not expected.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml

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